Jesse Sakstrup

Posted at 2012-01-10 15:25:37

@Warren Shapiro
From what I read about Ryan Howard, he could be ready by spring training, and playing on opening day is still possible. As we know more about the injury I will update the projection.
With Trumbo, I expect him to either play 3rd, or for either him or Morales to be traded, opening up more at bats. I will update the projection if Trumbo or Morales are not expected to receive regular at bats.
Brian LaHair is "our first baseman" according to Theo Epstien and should begin the season as the Cubs' first baseman. Anthony Rizzo will have to actually play well to keep a job if LaHair struggles.

Josh

Posted at 2012-01-12 14:12:11

Thanks for the rankings. I was just wondering a couple of things. First, why are you projecting Pujols and Fielder to hit more HRs? Has a player ever hit more HRs his 1st year in a new uniform? Second, maybe you should think about projecting players like Howard, Morales and Morneau with just question marks since no one has any idea how they'll do this season. We have an idea of their potential if healthy, but even they don't know how healthy their own bodies are.

Jesse Sakstrup

Posted at 2012-01-12 15:59:31

@Josh:
First, Pujols did miss about 50 plate appearances last year due to injury, so he would have likely hit around 40 if he had stayed healthy the full year. Second, leaving St Louis, which is a bad hitters park for right handed batters especially, and going to a more neutral hitters park could be worth a couple of extra homers as well. His fly ball rate was also down about 7% from his 2009 and 2010 marks, so I would expect him to hit a few more fly balls in 2012, which should result in a couple extra home runs.

With Fielder, his fly ball rate was the lowest of his career, so I expect that number to most likely rise in 2012, which could mean a couple more homers if he maintains a similar HR/FB rate. Of course where Fielder lands will matter a lot and I will adjust my projection accordingly if he does not resign with Milwaukee.

With Morneau, Morales, and Howard, they are obviously less clear, and they will probably finish nowhere near my projection for plate appearances... the problem is they could finish with 300 PAs or it could be 650. I am just trying to give the average amount of PAs if the season was played an infinite amount of times, so I tried to factor risk into my projections. We will know a lot more as the season approaches. Those three guys, as well as some of the guys locked in position battles are much more likely to finish further away from the projections.

Jesse Sakstrup

Posted at 2012-01-14 16:08:00

@OneLoveBoomer:
I have only heard that he will start the season as the starting first baseman, but that does not guarantee a full season of at bats (600+ PAs), so I am still conservative on Davis. Updated his projection though, as well as Ryan Howard's ("Phillies hopeful he is back by May").