2012 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Catchers

Published on Friday, 06 January 2012 10:09 | Written by Jesse Sakstrup

RotoSummit's 2012 Projections are based on advanced statistics, expected growth or regression, past performances, injury history and risk, and playing time potential. I attempt to create the most logical, realistic, and objective projections that I can, projecting what I would consider to be the average outcome for each player if the season was played out an infinite number of times. Though I did account for injury risk, I did not downgrade each player's playing time averages based on the minuscule chance that they miss the whole season (even though this would happen during infinite simulations of the season).

Here are my 2012 projections for the top 38 fantasy baseball catchers. If you feel that I left someone out that may be useful in your league, feel free to make suggestions and I will make adjustments.

Brian McCann - Atl	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	527	51	24	71	3	.270
	2012 Projected	556	64	25	84	4	.274

Carlos Santana - Cle	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	658	84	27	79	5	.239
	2012 Projected	634	78	26	77	5	.255

Mike Napoli - Tex	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	432	72	30	75	4	.320
	2012 Projected	480	67	27	76	4	.274

Joe Mauer - Min	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	333	38	3	30	0	.287
	2012 Projected	546	81	9	75	1	.314

Buster Posey - SF	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	185	17	4	21	3	.284
	2012 Projected	519	69	16	79	2	.290

Miguel Montero - Ari	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	553	65	18	86	1	.282
	2012 Projected	509	64	18	75	1	.276

Matt Wieters - Bal	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	551	72	22	68	1	.262
	2012 Projected	546	67	20	70	1	.278

Alex Avila - Det	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	551	63	19	82	3	.295
	2012 Projected	537	55	19	76	3	.263

Yadier Molina - StL	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	518	55	14	65	4	.305
	2012 Projected	522	47	11	62	5	.284

Russel Martin - NYY	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	476	57	18	65	8	.237
	2012 Projected	483	55	13	62	7	.254

J.P. Arencibia - Tor	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	486	47	23	78	1	.219
	2012 Projected	488	49	22	75	1	.231

Wilson Ramos - Was	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	435	48	15	52	0	.267
	2012 Projected	461	51	15	57	0	.272

Miguel Olivo - Sea	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	507	54	19	62	6	.224
	2012 Projected	487	52	17	60	6	.238

Kurt Suzuki - Oak	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	515	54	14	44	2	.237
	2012 Projected	541	54	14	55	3	.253

Ryan Doumit - Min	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	236	17	8	30	0	.303
	2012 Projected	395	44	12	52	1	.275

A.J Pierzynski - CWS	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	500	38	8	48	0	.287
	2012 Projected	496	41	9	52	1	.284

Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Bos	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	386	52	16	56	1	.235
	2012 Projected	393	54	14	58	0	.247

Jonathan Lucroy - Mil	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	468	45	12	59	2	.265
	2012 Projected	492	48	11	59	3	.263

Geovany Soto - ChC	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	474	46	17	54	0	.228
	2012 Projected	451	47	16	54	0	.246

John Buck - Mia	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	530	41	16	57	0	.227
	2012 Projected	486	42	16	54	0	.247

Chris Iannetta - LAA	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	426	51	14	55	6	.238
	2012 Projected	472	52	15	57	3	.237

Carlos Ruiz - Phi	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	472	49	6	40	1	.283
	2012 Projected	445	44	6	42	1	.282

Ramon Hernandez - Col	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	328	28	12	36	0	.282
	2012 Projected	333	31	11	45	0	.278

Salvador Perez - KC	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	158	20	3	21	0	.331
	2012 Projected	392	40	9	51	0	.272

Devin Mesoraco - Cin	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	53	5	2	6	0	.180
	2012 Projected	329	39	11	45	1	.261

Ryan Hanigan - Cin	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	304	27	6	31	0	.267
	2012 Projected	358	38	7	42	0	.277

Nick Hundley - SD	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	308	34	9	29	1	.288
	2012 Projected	360	41	10	46	1	.260

Rod Barajas - Pit	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	337	29	16	47	0	.230
	2012 Projected	364	37	17	49	0	.229

Yorvit Torrealba - Tex	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	419	40	7	37	0	.273
	2012 Projected	387	37	7	38	2	.261

Josh Thole - NYM	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	386	22	3	40	0	.268
	2012 Projected	417	31	4	40	1	.273

Ryan Lavarnway - Bos	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	43	5	2	8	0	.231
	2012 Projected	216	28	11	38	0	.257

Jason Castro - Hou	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	0	0	0	0	0	.000
	2012 Projected	392	48	5	31	1	.240

John Jaso - Sea	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	273	26	5	27	1	.224
	2012 Projected	310	32	5	32	2	.251

Willin Rosario - Col	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	57	6	3	8	0	.204
	2012 Projected	208	21	10	26	1	.248

Edit 1/6/12: Hank Conger added

Hank Conger - LAA	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	197	14	6	19	0	.209
	2012 Projected	235	22	7	28	0	.249

Jose Molina - TB	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	191	19	3	15	2	.281
	2012 Projected	279	25	4	21	1	.242

A.J Ellis - LAD	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	103	8	2	11	0	.271
	2012 Projected	253	22	2	30	0	.254

Edit 1/24/12: Martinez likely out for season

Victor Martinez - Det	Year	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
	2011 Totals	595	76	12	103	1	.330
	2012 Projected	0	0	0	0	0	.000

Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup

MJH
Posted at 2012-01-06 13:25:45
What do you think about Hank Conger?
Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-01-06 13:55:28
@MJH:
Conger added, playing time will be limited with Iannetta there. Upside in AL-only leagues if he manages to find more at bats.
FW23
Posted at 2012-01-07 04:50:06
Assuming Jesus Montero is eligible at the C position, where would you place him? Somewhere are the bottom of the top 10?
Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-01-07 11:33:16
@FW23:
I would have Montero easily inside my top ten, probably in the 5-7 range (in the Mauer/Posey range). He has really high upside, especially in the Yankees lineup, and especially if he plays 80%-%90 of his games at DH or 1B, and just a few at catcher.
Thomas
Posted at 2012-01-07 13:58:12
No Jesus Montero? Why? Would love to see a projection for him
Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-01-07 15:47:33
@Thomas:
Don't think he will be initially eligible at catcher to begin 2012. He will be ranked among my DH rankings.
ESPN has him ranked as a DH, but CBS has him ranked as a catcher, but Tristan Cockcroft confirmed on Twitter earlier today that ESPN will have him as DH only to begin 2012 (14 games at DH, 3 at catcher). So it may depend on what site you play on.
bucs in 2013
Posted at 2012-02-08 00:09:29
what about lavarnway? In a half season he projects top 5 numbers, but is there anything holding him up?
Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-02-08 06:15:25
@bucs in 2013:
Yeah, he is projected above, but I only have him at 216 plate appearances. I wouldn't reach for him, but he has tremendous upside for where you may get him in a draft. I just think there is a good chance he starts the year in the minors.

2012 Fantasy Baseball Projections: Catchers

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