final-logo-260x90

Early 2012 Keeper Rankings: Shortstop

tulowitzki-ramirez-reyes-600x400 This list ranks the top fantasy baseball shortstops in keeper leagues going into the 2012 season. This is a very early list that could be altered as the season approaches. This list takes into account more than just the 2012 season, this is my list of the best fantasy baseball shortstops over the next several years.

1. Troy Tulowitzki: Tulowitzki has taken over as fantasy baseball's top keeper shortstop. He has posted an isolated power over .240 for the past three years, and is a good bet for 30+ home runs if he can stay healthy. His K% in 2011 was the lowest of his career at 13%, so expect him to hit for an average near .300 going forward. Tulo is a very good fielding shortstop, so there should be no worries about a potential position switch here.

2. Hanley Ramirez: Hanley is surrounded by questions this off-season. He was having a very poor season in 2011 before an injury cut his year short. He hit for a .243/.333/.379 line with 10 home runs. He stole 20 bases, but only with a 67% success rate, if that type of success rate continues, his attempts could be reduced in the future. His .136 isolated power was by far the lowest of his career, indicating some power downside. To make matters worse, he is a poor fielding short stop, and a position change may be near, which would hurt his value. Hanley still has a ton of upside, but he is very risky in keeper leagues.

3. Jose Reyes: Reyes has struggled to stay healthy in three straight seasons, playing in 33, 133, and 126 games in those three years. He did, however, begin to run a little more on the base paths, stealing 39 bases in 46 attempts in 2011. Reyes should give you plenty of speed, a bit of power and a solid average going forward, but his injuries are concerning, as they usually get worse as players age. Don't get too hyped up here.

4. Starlin Castro: Castro's 2011 was very good in a quiet way. He hit .307, with 10 home runs, and 22 stolen bases, finishing in the top five at the shortstop position. Scouting reports never projected elite power or speed for Castro, but he can surely improve upon his age-21 season. Don't ever expect a 25/40 year from Castro, but he should be a threat for some 15/30/.310 seasons in the near future, with upside for more if he outperforms the scouting reports. He needs to improve his low 5% walk rate, but he is a great buy for a rebuilding keeper team regardless.

5. Elvis Andrus: Andrus had his best year in 2011, cutting his strikeout rate to 11%, allowing him to hit .279. He is very young at 23, so there may be some skills growth left. If he can continue to increase his contact rate, then a .290 or .300 batting average could be in play. He might only have 10 home run upside, but he has speed to burn, don't be surprised if he steals 50 bases in the near future. Andrus is an elite speed option in all keeper leagues.

6. Asdrubal Cabrera: It is really hard to accurately place Cabrera, his 2011 was so out of line with his career pathway so far. Don't expect his 25 homers from 2011 to grow into 35-40 someday. I would pay for 15-20 home runs, with 15-20 stolen bases and a solid batting average going forward. That has plenty of value at a shallow position.

7. Dee Gordon: Gordon has massive speed upside. The type of speed that could lead the majors in the category someday. He doesn't strike out too much, so he should hit for a decent average. He will have to work on his 3% walk rate if he is to fulfill his potential, so he may have some growing pains along the way. He may develop 5-10 home run power as he grows into his body, but you are not paying that part of his game. There are many possible outcomes with Gordon, but he could be a Michael Bourn type fantasy producer at shortstop.

8. Alexei Ramirez: Alexei's skills are pretty stable at 30 years old. He should be a good bet for mid-teens power and double digit steals for the next couple of years. He is a very solid option for a team competing right now.

9. Erick Aybar: Aybar made big strides in 2011, hitting .279, with 10 home runs and 30 steals. He hit 51 extra base hits (27 in 2010), contributing to a career high .142 isolated power. He may have played a bit over his head and has never played more than 143 games in any season of his career. But, if he can produce skills close to those in 2011, he will easily produce top 10 shortstop value.

10. Stephen Drew: Drew has never reached the potential that some believed that he had. He will be 29 at the beginning of 2012 and is coming off of his worst season (skills-wise) and a season where he dealt with a significant injury. It is reasonable to expect him to return to his 15/10/.270 type production that we are used to, but expecting more would be very hopeful at this point.

11. Jimmy Rollins: Rollins will be 33 at the beginning of 2012, but he is still producing at a high level when healthy. Health is a concern though for Rollins, he has only played more than 142 games one time in the past four years. His strikeout and walk rates are both very stable, so he should be able to help out competing teams for at least a couple more years.

12. Yunel Escobar: Escobar bounced back to his normal level of production in 2012. A 10-15 home run, 5 steal, .290 baseline projection for Escobar is what you should expect. Nothing too special, but very solid and often undervalued.

13. Jhonny Peralta: Peralta may have had his best year in 2011, hitting .299 with 21 home runs. The batting average was partially BABIP driven, but his strikeout rate has improved over the past couple of years, so a .280+ average is certainly sustainable. With no speed to speak of, you are really only getting 15-20 home runs annually with a decent batting average. Value, nonetheless.

14. J.J. Hardy: Hardy hit 30 home runs, with a .269 average in 2011. He benefited from a 16% HR/FB rate (highest of career) and is probably more of a 20-25 home run hitter. His health is also a concern, he has averaged 114 games over his seven year career. Players don't get healthier with age, he is 29, so approach Hardy with caution in keeper and dynasty leagues.

15. Alcides Escobar: Prior to his first full season in 2010, scouts thought that Alcides Escobar could be a .280 hitter with 30+ stolen bases annually. Escobar hit just .235 and .254 in his first two seasons, but showed flashes of his speed potential in 2011, with 26 stolen bases in 35 attempts. He won't ever hit for much power and needs to improve his 4% walk rate if he wants to hit at the top of a major league lineup, but he is still young and has plenty of time to grow into that 30 steal, .280 hitting, lead-off hitter, and that would easily put him in the top ten among shortstops.

16. Zack Cozart: Cozart should be able to win a starting shortstop job in spring training next year. He could be a 15/20 contributor right away, but he should also be a batting average risk. Ultimately, if everything falls right, he could go 20/30/.260, but he is already 26, so there isn't much projection with Cozart, what you see is close to what you are going to get. He is a good gamble to take for rebuilding teams.

17. Derek Jeter: Jeter still has something to offer competing teams. He is 37 years old, though, so only expect top ten shortstop production for one more year, maybe two if you are lucky. A 10/15/.290 year is possible, but so is a sharp decline. Jeter is a must sell unless you are a serious contender in 2012.

18. Ian Desmond: Desmond offers the potential to go 10/20/.260 for the next few years, with room for more than that if he progresses. He will have to improve his patience (5% career walk rate) and his .304 career OBP if he ever wants to maintain a top of the lineup spot and score a helpful amount of runs. There is a bit of upside here, but don't go reaching for Desmond in keeper leagues.

19. Jurickson Profar: Profar hit for a very good .286/.390/.493 line, with 12 home runs and 23 stolen bases in 115 games at single A in 2011. He walked more than he struck out, a great sign for a young hitter. He is still very young, but his skills at such a young age indicate an unusually high floor. If everything goes as planned, he could be a 15-20 home run, 20-25 steal, .290 hitter shortly after he reaches the majors. The problem is that he is still 18 and his ETA is likely 2013 at the earliest. He is a great buy for a rebuilding team, but won't have fantasy impact for at least a year or two.

20. Nick Franklin: After a big year in 2010 where he hit 23 home runs, stole 25 bases, with a .281 average, Franklin really spun his tires in 2011, only playing in 85 games, hitting 7 home runs, with 18 steals. He projects to have above average power for a shortstop, that can contribute a handful of stolen bases, with decent batting average once he begins to reach his prime. He is 20 years old, finished 2011 in double A and probably won't see the majors until 2013. Franklin, like Profar, is a good player to buy if you are rebuilding, but you will have to wait a while for him to return fantasy value.

All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP)

Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup

  • mike_cereal

    Posted at 2011-12-31 12:13:28

    Franklin, Cozart, and Profar but no Machado?

  • Jesse Sakstrup

    Posted at 2011-12-31 15:50:11

    @mike_cereal
    I am placing more weight on the next couple of years than 5-10 years down the line because the present is more predictable and many leagues limit the number of years that you can keep a player at a fixed price. This is why Cozart ranks higher, he is already in the majors. For Nick Franklin, I just think he is closer to the majors than Machado, and I just like Profar more.

    For leagues where proximity is not a factor and you can keep players at a fixed price forever... I would rank them Profar barely over Machado, followed by Franklin and Cozart a ways behind the first two.

  • Peter

    Posted at 2012-01-26 12:19:31

    I only get to keep 5 players out of these 6: Kemp, Granderson, Zimmerman, Napoli, Andrus, Sabathia. Is Andrus the odd man out?

  • Jesse Sakstrup

    Posted at 2012-01-26 16:43:29

    @Peter:
    Kemp and Granderson are obvious, but I have the other four guys pretty close.

    It depends on how long you can keep them (with no penalties), if it is more than two years, I would keep Andrus and Zimmerman.

    Then it would come down to your preference between Sabathia and Napoli.


    If you are keeping them just for 2012, I would go throw either Zimmerman or Andrus back. Probably Zimmerman, but really close.

    If you give me the keeper rules, I could give you a better answer.

Post your comments...

Search