Early 2012 Keeper Rankings: Third Base

Evan Longoria is Fantasy Baseball's Top Keeper Third Baseman
This list ranks the top fantasy baseball third basemen in keeper leagues going into the 2012 season. This is a very early list that could be altered as the season approaches. This list takes into account more than just the 2012 season, this is my list of the best fantasy baseball third basemen over the next several years.
1. Evan Longoria: At 26, Longoria may be just entering his prime. He was really unlucky with a .239 BABIP in 2011, which may cause him to go undervalued. He has actually improved both his K% and BB% in each of the past three seasons, so look for a nice bounce back at a discounted price. He should produce 30+ home runs, with a good batting average for plenty of years to come. Longoria is the best balance of current and future value for those in keeper leagues.
2. Jose Bautista: Though Bautista is 31 years old, he offers competing owners a very good chance to win right now. He had more walks than strikeouts last year, so there is really nothing that suggests a sharp decline is near. He looks a good bet for 40+ homers and a bit of speed for the next two or three years. If you have a legitimate chance to win your fantasy baseball league for the next couple of years, then there is no better third base option than Jose Bautista.
3. David Wright: This is more of a vote against the other third basemen, than a vote for Wright. Wright has offered reason for concern in each of the past three years. Power outage in 2009, 24% strikeout rate in 2010, and a low average and injury troubles in 2011. Wright is far from a slam dunk and far from safe, but he can still be a 20/20/.290 producer at a scarce position.
4. Ryan Zimmerman: Health is always a concern with Zimmerman, as it was in 2011. He is just 27, and nothing in his skills profile should cause too much concern, but Zimmerman is usually valued as if he will play a full season, so he is probably one to either avoid or to trade away in all leagues.
5. Pablo Sandoval: An injury really masked how good of a season Sandoval was having in 2011. He finished with the highest isolated power of his career; he was on pace (152 games; he played 152 and 153 games in the previous two seasons) for 29 home runs, 91 RBIs, with a .315 average. He is still only 25, and could have some skills growth left. Sandoval, who seems to be undervalued right now, may be a good target in keeper leagues.
6. Brett Lawrie: Lawrie will be 22 years old when the 2012 season begins, but he has already shown flashes of his considerable fantasy baseball upside. In total, Lawrie hit 27 home runs and stole 20 bases in 112 games between triple A and the majors in 2011. Lawrie can potentially contribute 20/20/.290 seasons right now, and has the tools to be a 30/30/.300 third baseman in his prime. Temper expectations, however, he still has yet to prove his worth over a full major league season.
7. Adrian Beltre: Beltre is a better play for competing teams, and is a guy to sell if you are rebuilding. He showed that he still has 30 home run power, hitting 32 in just 124 games last year. Playing in Texas and being in the Ranger's lineup should benefit him too, but he is 33 so his good years are numbered.
8. Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis is already showing signs of his age (will be 33 on opening day 2012). He has missed 102 games over the past two seasons. He can still give a competing team good power, a solid average, and lots of counting stats in a good Red Sox lineup, but if you are rebuilding, unload Youkilis as soon as you can.
9. Aramis Ramirez: Aramis is another aging third baseman, but he proved that he could stay healthy and still produce very good numbers in 2011. A good average and good power are still in play for at least a couple of years for Ramirez.
10. Mark Reynolds: Reynolds is still just 28 years old, and should be able to provide mid-30s power, with a .230ish average for the next few years. His 32% strikeout rate is concerning though, if that begins to regress further, it may begin to cost him at bats if his batting average were to consistently creep near .200.
11. Michael Young: It is time to move Young in keeper leagues, as he is now 35 years old. If you do own him, he can still provide teens power with a very good batting average for the next couple of years.
12. Alex Rodriguez: A-Rod is 36 years old, and hasn't played in 140 games in any of the past four seasons, playing just 99 games in 2011. His isolated power was the lowest of his career last year, so his power may be declining as well. There are some who still value him as a top 40 or 50 player, take advantage of their perception and unload or stay clear of Rodriguez in keeper leagues.
13. Mike Moustakas: Moustakas really under-achieved in his 89 games in the majors after being promoted from triple A. He hit just .263 with 5 home runs. One positive is that he struck out in just 14% of his at bats, indicating plenty of room for batting average growth. He has the talent to hit for 30+ home runs with a good average once he reaches his prime, but right now he has a long ways to go. He is just 23 and is a great buy low for a rebuilding dynasty team.
14. Martin Prado: Prado had a poor BABIP, contributing to a low average in 2011. He is more of a .290 hitter going forward though. Along with a good average, he can also give you teens power with solid counting stats provided that he remains at the top of the Braves lineup. Nothing special, but he is 28 and still has a few productive years ahead of him.
15. Lonnie Chisenhall: Chisenhall didn't impress much in his first 66 major league games. He batted .265 with 7 home runs. He also had a terrible 3.6% walk rate and a high 22% strikeout rate. He showed much better skills in all areas in the minors and could someday develop into a player who hits 20+ home runs with a potentially beneficial batting average. His upside isn't elite, but he could be very good and that has value too.
16. Chase Headley: Headley hit just 4 home runs in 2011, largely a product of an unlucky home run rate and a bit of time missed due to injury. He should be able to produce double digit home runs and steals with a decent average going forward. Headley's upside is limited to being traded away from PETCO, so don't get too excited here. Reliable, but boring.
17. David Freese: Many people don't realize that David Freese is already 28 years old. There may not be much growth left for him. His value will be far overrated because of his performance in the 2011 playoffs, even though he can never stay healthy. Freese could hit 20 homers with a .300 average if he could stay healthy for a full year, but don't draft him as that type of player. There may never be a better time to deal Freese, as his perceived value is much higher than his real value right now.
18. Anthony Rendon: Rendon has some serious talent, but he has dealt with two ankle injuries and a shoulder injury over the past two seasons while he was in college. Rendon will have to answer questions about his durability before he emerges as one of the game's premier third basemen, but if everything falls right, Anthony Rendon could be a 25+ home run hitter with a .300+ batting average. Being that he plays for the Washington Nationals a position switch to second base could be coming. Either way, Rendon is a fantastic pickup for any team looking more toward the future than the present.
19. Pedro Alvarez: There isn't much in Alvarez's 2011 statistics that suggest he will be a valuable fantasy asset in the future. A .098 isolated power, .191 batting average, 31% strikeout rate, and just 4 home runs in 74 games was what he managed to produce in 2011. There is so much do dislike about his game, but he still has plus raw power that could translate into 30+ home runs with a .250 batting average some day. He is worth a filer, but don't give up too much value for him.
20. Edwin Encarnacion: He struggles with health and will be 29 to begin the 2012 season, but Edwin Encarnacion does offer good power when healthy. Players who get hurt in their 20's don't usually become healthy in their 30's, so don't think you are going to get 140 games out of Encarnacion each year. There is usually more promise than substance with Encarnacion, bid responsibly.
All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP)

Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2011-11-21 12:17:48
@John Calvagno
I do like Arenado, but he is not close enough to the majors to add to this list yet. For rebuilding teams, however, he is a great target though.

John Calvagno
Posted at 2011-11-21 10:41:49
no Nolan Arenado?