Early 2012 Keeper Rankings: Starting Pitcher

One of the most important things to look at with pitchers is health and reliability. As pitching performance is so volatile, age is less important than current skills, health, and reliability. We do not know when a pitcher's workload will catch up to him, so my starting pitcher keeper rankings will more closely reflect my redraft rankings than any other position.
1. Clayton Kershaw: Kershaw made big strides for the second straight season in 2011, establishing himself as a premier fantasy starter. The only knock on Kershaw is that he has only performed at his 2011 level for one year. He is 24 and could easily be the best fantasy baseball pitcher over the next five years. The longer you are able to keep a pitcher at a fixed price, the more valuable Kershaw is among pitchers.
2. Justin Verlander: Verlander was very good in 2011, but his FIP has remained stable over the past three years, indicating that his lucky 2011 was preceded by two years of bad luck. Going forward, a 3.00 ERA may be a responsible projection for Verlander. Don't overvalue his long term prospects based on his 24 wins, .236 BABIP, and 80% strand rate from 2011.
3. Felix Hernandez: Like Verlander, Hernandez has produced a similar FIP in each of the past three years, with an unlucky ERA in 2011 that followed two years of good luck. His strikeout and walk rates also remain very stable. He should produce very similar numbers to Verlander going forward, but since he still plays for Seattle, he gets a slight downgrade for win potential.
4. Roy Halladay: Halladay is 34 years old, but is showing absolutely no sign of regression. In 2011 he finished with the highest strikeout rate of his career, along with the lowest ERA, FIP, xFIP, tERA, and second lowest SIERA of his career. He has also pitched in more than 220 innings in 6 straight years. Halladay is the safest investment for competing teams over the next couple of years.
5. Cliff Lee: Lee is an elite control pitcher, but he struck out 9.2 batters per 9 in his first full season in the NL. He is 33 years old, but has thrown over 210 innings in four straight seasons. Expect a very good ERA, elite WHIP and good strikeout totals from Lee, making him a very good investment for the near future.
6. Tim Lincecum: Lincecum has not been a top fantasy starter for the past two seasons, increasing his walk rate and decreasing his strikeout rate, leading to a higher WHIP and less strikeouts. He is still very safe health wise, as he has pitched over 200 innings in four straight years. He is a borderline top 10 pitcher at his current skills, with the upside of returning to his Cy Young level.
7. C.C. Sabathia: Sabathia has pitched over 230 innings for five straight years. He is 31 and an incredibly reliable source for an ERA near 3.00, WHIP just below 1.20, and 200 strikeouts.
8. Stephen Strasburg: It is no secret that Strasburg's raw talent exceeds every other starter in the game. There are only two question marks in Strasburg's profile, the fact that he has only thrown 92 major league innings, averaging just 5.4 innings per start, and that he came off of Tommy John surgery in 2011. His value is in his upside, he has a career 11.4 strikeout rate, with a 1.9 walk rate, and that level of performance is not beyond his talent level. He could be one of the best fantasy pitchers we have ever seen, provided he stays healthy.
9. David Price: Price has increased his strikeout rate and decreased his walk rate in two straight years. His 224 innings in 2011 are a good sign that he will produce the workload required to be a fantasy ace in the future. Price looks like a strong long term investment at a reasonable value.
10. Cole Hamels: Hamels is 28 and has been very consistent over the past five years. He had his best year in 2011, throwing his cutter more, a pitch that he began throwing in 2010, contributing to a 12% increase in ground ball rate over his 2009 mark, significantly reducing his home run tally. Hamels looks a strong bet to supply very good numbers across the board for the next few years.
11. Dan Haren: With seven straight years of 210+ innings, Haren is another incredibly reliable pitcher. Count on good health, a 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 200 strikeouts from Haren for the near future.
12. Zack Greinke: Greinke's 3.83 ERA in 2011 was not a true reflection of his skills, as he led all of baseball with a 2.56 xFIP, to go along with his 10.5 K/9 rate. He has plenty of upside and is a good buy low candidate right now. If his luck corrects in 2012, he should be ranked much higher on this list heading into 2013.
13. Tommy Hanson: Hanson began to flash his upside in 2011, striking out 9.8 batters per 9, but had his season shortened by injury, limiting him to 130 innings. Hanson's frame is ideal for a pitcher, so he doesn't seem to be a prime candidate for consistent injuries in the future. Hanson has Cy Young upside, but needs to be more consistent.
14. Jered Weaver: Lost in Weaver's 2011 run at a Cy Young award was a decreased strikeout rate, and some lucky peripherals. His .250 hit rate, and 83% strand rate were extremely lucky, and masked his 7.6 K/9 rate. Weaver's 2.41 ERA should be much higher in 2012, making him a good sell high if you own him. Weaver is a solid option, but likely won't last long enough on draft boards to have good value in keeper leagues.
15. Jon Lester: Lester was quietly disappointing in 2011, his strikeout rate decreased substantially, his walk rate was high, he only pitched 191.2 innings, and a lucky strand rate kept his 3.47 ERA from being a little uglier. He has never pitched more than 210.1 innings in any season, has never had an ERA lower than 3.21, or WHIP lower than 1.20. Lester is simply overrated in fantasy, and will likely be taken earlier than this in keeper drafts.
16. Matt Cain: Cain is very durable, very consistent, has pitched in over 215 innings in four straight years, and his xFIP has dropped in each of his professional seasons. He offers elite ERA and WHIP, with solid, but not great strikeout totals. Cain is often undervalued, but is a very trustworthy option in keeper leagues.
17. Michael Pineda: There is a lot to like about Michael Pineda's profile. His 9.1 strikeout rate and low 2.9 walk rate will give him high strikeout totals and should keep his WHIP low. His innings total should increase towards 200 in 2012 as well. The only negative is that he has dealt with injuries in the minors, so his long term health may be questionable. Pineda's upside is worth the risk, he has the skills to be a top five fantasy starter in the future.
18. Matt Moore: The only thing holding Matt Moore from the top tier of starting pitchers is lack of proven major league production. He struck out over 12 per 9, while walking less than 3 in the minors in 2011, before making his major league debut. Moore has a high 90s fastball, two plus offspeed pitches, with command of all three. All of that from the left side makes him the best pitching prospect since Strasburg. Moore has enormous upside, and could rank inside the top five on this list very soon.
19. Mat Latos: Now that Latos has been traded to the Reds, his short term win potential receives a nice boost. He should be able to maintain a low-to-mid 3's ERA, with a good WHIP and strikeout totals. A solid option in keeper leagues.
20. Adam Wainwright: Wainwright is somewhat risky, but as his control comes back he should start to show flashes of his pre-2011 self. His downside is that he never fully rediscovers his previous ability, but the upside is a top-5 fantasy pitcher.
21. Madison Bumgarner: Bumgarner made big strides in 2011. His big increase in swinging strike% led to a big jump in strikeout rate up to 8.4 K/9. If his high hit rate regresses to league average, then he would have some WHIP upside, as his control is already very good. Bumgarner is just 22, and makes for a very good investment in keeper leagues.
22. James Shields: Shields' marginal gains in skills resulted in absurd gains in surface statistics in 2011. He has been very durable, but inconsistent in his performances. His 250 innings from 2011 was 30 more than his previous career high. His lucky peripherals suggest he is more of a mid-3's ERA pitcher, but one with a solid WHIP and good strikeout totals. His strong 2011 will probably have him overvalued in keeper leagues.
23. Yovani Gallardo: I am not willing to pay for Gallardo's 2011 season until he proves he can replicate it, his 207.1 innings were by far the most of his career, and his 1.22 WHIP, which is good not great, was easily the lowest of his career. He has decreased his walk rate significantly in two straight years, but he still has trouble with the long ball. I do believe Gallardo is a better pitcher, but I am not willing to ignore his pre-2011 track record either.
24. Ian Kennedy: Kennedy was great in 2011, but much of his value was driven by his 21 wins, which doesn't seem repeatable; a 79% strand rate certainly helped as well. Look for a low-to-mid 3's ERA, with a good WHIP and solid strikeouts from Kennedy going forward.
25. Brandon Beachy: Beachy's 10.7 strikeout and 2.9 walk rates were astounding in 2011, but his season was shortened to 141.2 innings due to injury. His swinging strike% was among the highest in baseball, so he should be able to maintain high K rates. The injuries will be something to monitor, but if he could ever sustain 200 innings annually, he would be one of better bargains in keeper leagues.
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Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2011-12-20 10:25:56
@Casting Off
I see Bumgarner and Wilson as very similar pitchers currently (I like Wilson a bit more), but Bumgarner is much younger.
It really depends on how long your league lets you keep players at a fixed price. If it was two years or less, I would go Wilson, but more than two, I would go with Bumgarner.
Posted at 2011-12-25 16:19:29
Some really interesting points you have written. Aided me a lot, just what I was looking for : D.

Anthony
Posted at 2011-12-27 13:43:34
I would believe more in Michael Pineda if he had a more developed changeup. He was getting hammered at the end of last year.

Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2011-12-27 19:23:57
@Anthony
Yes, I agree, he really needs to refine his changeup to be more effective against lefties. What I do like about him is his low walk rate, which should keep his WHIP low, and his strikeout ability. His high K% and Swinging strike% suggest that a k/9 rate of over 9 was not a fluke.
He was getting shelled at the end of the year, he may have wore down physically, may have been an adjustment period, may have been bad luck in a small sample size. I am looking at the skill set and the whole body of work; If he had the poor stretch in June we wouldn't be worried about it. Still like him as a long term investment if the cost is reasonable.

Casting Off
Posted at 2011-12-20 04:50:22
Love your top 25. I would be inclined to swicth Bumgarner and Wilson.