Don't expect Montero or Lavarnway to stick at catcher

This list ranks the top fantasy baseball designated hitters in keeper leagues going into the 2012 season. This is a very early list that could be altered as the season approaches. This list takes into account more than just the 2012 season, this is my list of the best fantasy baseball designated hitters over the next several years.

1. Jesus Montero: I don't see Montero sticking at catcher long term, but being a full time designated hitter should help him become a better hitter. Montero has serious upside, with plus, plus raw power to all fields and the ability to hit for a high average. A .328/.406/.590 line that Montero put up in a small 18 game sample in 2011 with the Yankees is just a glimpse of what he could do in the future. If he can keep a low strikeout rate, and further develop his power as he reaches his prime, he could produce 30+ home runs and a .300+ average on a yearly basis. Montero has huge potential, even if he is just a DH.

2. Billy Butler: People are still waiting for Butler to have that break out season. Butler has a career .161 isolated power, and neither of his past two seasons have deviated much from that mean. Most of his other peripherals are very stable as well. Maybe he will breakout someday, but Butler looks like a 20 home run, .300 hitter for the time being, I wouldn't pay for much more than that.

3. David Ortiz: Ortiz is now 36 years old, but is showing no signs of decline, in fact, he had his best year since 2007 this past season. While Ortiz may be able to provide 30 home runs and a decent batting average for a couple more years, he is a must sell for rebuilding teams.

4. Ryan Lavarnway: Like Montero, I do not see Lavarnway as a long term option at catcher. He hit 34 home runs in total across double A, triple A, and the majors in 2011. He has very good power, but some scouts doubt his ability to hit for a good average in the big leagues. He could be a 20-25 home run, .260 hitter fairly soon, provided he gets regular playing time. Speculating on Lavarnway is a better long term decision than investing in some of the more elderly players lower on this list.

5. Johnny Damon: Damon is coming off of a bounce-back season in 2011, hitting 16 home runs and stealing 19 bases. Damon did, however, increase his chase rate for the third straight season, and his walk rate dramatically decreased as well. Both numbers are bad signs for aging players. At 38, Damon could still have value, but not for long, he is a poor long term investment.

6. Vladimir Guerrero: Guerrero will be 37 to begin the 2012 season. In 2011, he had a 3% walk rate, the lowest of his career. He also had a .126 isolated power, also the lowest of his career. Guerrero could provide one or two more helpful years, but, like Damon, he is a very bad long term investment.

7. Travis Hafner: To own Hafner, you will have to be in a very deep league. He has averaged only 91 games over the past four seasons. He is capable of hitting for teens power in limited time, with a decent average. Hafner is 34, but can still offer some value, especially if you have the luxury of playing someone else when Hafner is not playing.

8. Jorge Posada: Posada offers little value in 2012, and even less in keeper leagues. Could still possibly hit for mid-teens power, with a neutral batting average, but don't count on that. He is 40, and worth very little investment.

All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).

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