Before a thumb injury cut his 2011 season short, Brennan Boesch quietly made some significant gains on his 2010 rookie campaign with the Detroit Tigers. Boesch initially came up on April 23, 2010 after Detroit sent left fielder Carlos Guillen to the DL. He went on to hit 12 home runs in his first 211 at bats and had the attention of almost everyone in the American League. As someone who watches the Tigers on an almost daily basis, I was skeptical about Boesch to say the least. His initial batted ball average over those same 211 AB’s was unsustainable and he was susceptible to off-speed stuff from right-handers despite his early success with the long ball. What Chris Shelton had done for Detroit in 2006 seemed eerily similar to what Boesch was doing, as neither was highly touted prospects coming up through the minor leagues. Boesch followed up his hot start by hitting just 2 home runs over his final 252 AB’s, leaving me to believe my original thoughts on him had been confirmed.

When we look at Boesch’s 2011 peripherals closely, it’s apparent that I was wrong. Despite missing 38 games down the stretch and registering 40 less plate appearances, Boesch actually hit more home runs. Additionally, he saw his K rate improve, his .ISO increased, he significantly improved his line drive rate, and improved dramatically against right-handed pitching. His collapse down the stretch in 2010 caused him to go undrafted in most shallow mixed formats last season, but he ended up being a valuable OF5 asset in standard mixed leagues despite missing significant time and was much better when healthy.

Looking ahead to 2012 for fantasy purposes, Boesch is someone I’m excited about because of how far below the radar he continues to fly. He’s currently being taken as the 56^th outfielder off the board on Mock Draft Central and his ADP sits at 215. He’s being taken after teammate Austin Jackson, which is baffling to say the least, in addition to guys like Juan Pierre and Vernon Wells. Despite all of the peripheral gains that Boesch made in 2011, it’s still not what I’m most excited about for next season. As things currently sit, it’s all but certain that Boesch will be hitting 2^nd in the Detroit lineup. You may have heard by now about their acquisition of Prince Fielder, and with Miguel Cabrera already in house, Boesch is in line to get more meatballs to hit than anyone in the game in 2012. Still just 26 years old, he’s about to enter his prime power years and his Z-Contact% of 91.3 in 2011 is going to equate to great things with the amount of fastballs pitchers will be forced to throw him while hitting ahead of Fielder and Cabrera.

I feel that 130 games in 2012 is a conservative number for Boesch, leaving .270/20/70 as my baseline projection for him with room for a lot more if he can stay on the field. Other OF’s going in his ADP range include: Alex Presley, Nyjer Morgan, & Alex Rios, furthering my belief that this late in drafts, Boesch is an absolute steal for what he’s going to cost you. He’s someone you can take in the 20-22 round range and legitimately see 25 home runs, 80 runs, a .280 average, and a sneaky handful of steals from next season. While outfield remains one of the deeper positions in fantasy, things thin out quickly in the OF4 and OF5 range. Brennan Boesch is someone who can be had for an OF5 price and return OF3 value, which is something we are all looking for on draft day.