In a couple of my previous articles and more recently in Jesse’s article about how Miguel Cabrera’s value only increases marginally at third, we touched on the fact that third base is surprisingly deep this year. It has been a somewhat shallow position in previous years and it’s no doubt had an effect on the ADP’s of the top third basemen. I wanted to go into more depth with this because as you’ll see shortly, third base is actually a position where you can afford to be patient and find value late in 2012 drafts. The ADP’s listed are as of January 31, 2012 on Mock Draft Central. The numbers that everyone is listed at in each tier are reflective of their ADP’s and not necessarily how I’d have them ranked. For further reference, you can find our 2012 Fantasy Baseball Third Base Projections here.

The Elite

1) Jose Bautista – Toronto Blue Jays: (ADP: 4)

RS Projection: 44 HR, 108 R, 109 RBI, 9 SB, .281 AVG

2) Evan Longoria – Tampa Bay Rays: (ADP: 12)

RS Projection: 33 HR, 98 R, 111 RBI, 8 SB, .276 AVG

Both of these guys speak for themselves. They are cornerstone pieces for any team regardless of format. While we may not see Bautista hit 50+ HR again, he’s as good a bet as any to hit 40 in 2012 despite the fact that some teams will continue to refuse to pitch to him. Longoria finished ’11 scorching hot and if his .244 average from last year has his owner worried in your keeper league, go get him. I love both of these guys for the foreseeable future.

The Really Good

3) Adrian Beltre – Texas Rangers: (ADP: 31)

RS Projection: 31 HR, 91 R, 108 RBI, 2 SB, .293 AVG

4) David Wright – New York Mets: (ADP: 33)

RS Projection: 24 HR, 86 R, 88 RBI, 20 SB, .282 AVG

5) Ryan Zimmerman – Washington Nationals: (ADP: 41)

RS Projection: 23 HR, 82 R, 83 RBI, 4 SB, .295 AVG

The only thing keeping me from placing Beltre in the elite tier is the fact that I just don’t see him playing more than 140 games in 2012. We’ve projected him for roughly 90 less PA’s than Bautista and Longoria, but if he were to play 150+ games, he’ll be a tremendous value. With Wright and Zimmerman the narrative is familiar; will we see a full season of action out of them? Both offer such high upside that it’s hard not to group them here based on the seasons they’ve put together in the past and the talent they possess.

The Underappreciated/Breakout Candidates

6) Brett Lawrie – Toronto Blue Jays: (ADP: 55)

RS Projection: 19 HR, 78 R, 81 RBI, 18 SB, .280 AVG

7) Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants: (ADP: 69)

RS Projection: 25 HR, 73 R, 91 RBI, 3 SB, .308 AVG

8) Michael Young – Texas Rangers: (ADP: 71)

RS Projection: 15 HR, 90 R, 97 HR, 6 SB, .315 AVG

Lawrie is going way too high for my liking despite the skill set he possesses. There’s eventual 30/30 potential with him but owners in 2012 are going to pay much more than market value with the hope he produces like that right away, eliminating most of his profit potential. His 171 plate appearances from 2011 simply isn’t a big enough sample size to draw definitive conclusions. Sandoval and the always underappreciated Michael Young are likely to be targets of mine for next season. At 35 years old, Young continues to mash, but gets overlooked often due to the depth and star power of the Rangers’ lineup. Sandoval was very impressive despite missing some time in 2011; he’s another recommended target in keeper leagues, as well as in 2012 at his current ADP.

Declining, Not Dead

9) Alex Rodriguez – New York Yankees: (ADP: 60)

RS Projection: 22 HR, 79 R, 92 RBI, 4 SB, .284 AVG

10) Aramis Ramirez – Milwaukee Brewers: (ADP: 68)

RS Projection: 25 HR, 77 R, 92 RBI, 1 SB, .286 AVG

11) Kevin Youkilis – Boston Red Sox: (ADP: 84)

RS Projection: 21 HR, 78 R, 87 RBI, 4 SB, .282 AVG

These guys all have tremendous credentials, but the numbers they’ve accrued have also led to a lot of miles on their bodies. Our projections reflect our belief that all three will inevitably end up on the DL at some point in 2012. Despite that belief, they are still extremely talented and start-worthy in all formats. I don’t love A-Rod at #60 right now but, Youkilis at #84 looks like a pretty significant value. The counting numbers that come with playing in the Yankees and Red Sox lineups helps offset some of the time both will miss and in shallower leagues and finding a temporary replacement option shouldn’t be too difficult.

Best of the Rest

12) Mark Reynolds – Baltimore Orioles: (ADP: 118)

RS Projection: 35 HR, 85 R, 87 RBI, 7 SB, .229 AVG

13) David Freese – St Louis Cardinals (ADP: 159)

RS Projection: 11 HR, 47 R, 61 RBI, 1 SB, .299 AVG

14) Emilio Bonifacio – Miami Marlins: (ADP: 178)

RS Projection: 3 HR, 72 R, 31 RBI, 33 SB, .273 AVG

15) Martin Prado – Atlanta Braves: (ADP: 190)

RS Projection: 15 HR, 83 R, 65 RBI, 4 SB, .289 AVG

16) Ryan Roberts – Arizona Diamondbacks: (ADP: 195)

RS Projection: 17 HR, 72 R, 63 RBI, 15 SB, .252 AVG

Reynolds, Bonifacio, & Prado are all specialists to a degree. The power Reynolds gives owners is tremendous that late in drafts if owners feel they can sufficiently make up AVG in other spots. Provided they don’t sign Yoenis Cespedes, I believe Ozzie Guillen will give Bonifacio the center field gig out of spring training and the speed he possesses makes him a great investment at #178. Bonifacio also offers SS eligibility and OF eligibility, which is a huge and often overlooked asset to have in daily leagues. Prado’s value hinges on his batting average, which I expect to return to 2010 levels now that he’s had time to get healthy. He is also OF-eligible. Roberts is getting almost no respect after he came to close to reaching 20/20 last year. 15/15 with an average that won’t kill you has plenty of value in the 20^th round. You will not see me taking Freese anywhere near that ADP, he has never played more than 97 games in a major league season and people are heavily overvaluing him for his post-season performance.

In addition to the 16 guys mentioned above, Mike Moustakas, Chipper Jones, Dayan Viciedo, & Daniel Murphy should all have value in deeper mixed leagues and AL/NL only formats. The move by Miguel Cabrera to third for Detroit will also eventually make the position that much deeper. Third base is the deepest it’s been in years, make sure to capitalize on it in 2012 drafts.