Keeper leagues offer up a unique opportunity to buy and sell players, even when games are still a few months away. This guide is designed to help you pick out some trade targets at each position who may have a perceived value in your league that is less than their actual value. The guide also offers players to sell; these players have market values that are higher than their actual value, and you may be able to improve your team by trading them away.

In this installment, I will take a look at the starting pitcher position to identify some good buying and selling opportunities for fantasy owners in keeper leagues. As a reference, you may want to see where these players rank in my Early 2012 Keeper Rankings for Starting Pitchers.

Buys:

1. Zack Greinke - Milwaukee Brewers: I already wrote about Greinke earlier this off-season, but he remains a very good pitcher to target in trade. His .318 hit rate and 70% strand rate were slightly higher than his career averages, so as they normalize, his 3.83 ERA from 2011 should come back down some. His 14% HR/FB rate was probably more unlucky than either his strand rate or his hit rate, look for a number closer to his career rate of 9%, which should bring his ERA into the low-3's. Greinke is not only a buy because he was unlucky, he is also a buy because his skills improved; his 10.5 strikeout rate was easily the best of his career and he maintained a walk rate that was in line with his career mark. His SwStr% jumped a full 3% from 2010, somewhat validating a large increase in his strikeout rate. If you still need another reason to buy into Zack Greinke, consider his 2.56 xFIP and 2.66 SIERA (both attempt to measure skill-related ERA, eliminating luck factors), both were tops in all of baseball. If he maintains his skill level, and has neutral luck, we could be looking at a sub-3.00 ERA and 230 strikeouts. It is definitely time to inquire about Greinke in your keeper league.

2. Ubaldo Jimenez - Cleveland Indians: While his 2 mph drop in fastball velocity is alarming, there was very little in Ubaldo's underlying numbers that suggest that he is a different pitcher than he was in 2009 and 2010. Both his strikeout and walk rates in 2011 were nearly identical to his 2010 totals, and his groundball rate was very close as well at 47%. His xFIPs over the past three years of 3.59, 3.60, and 3.71 further suggest that his skills have remained very stable. Ubaldo was plagued by a very unlucky 65% strand rate and .314 hit rate (.286 career), so his 4.68 ERA was very unlucky. His SwStr% dropped a bit to 7.5%, so along with the velocity drop, there is a little concern. While there is a bit of worry, the price on Ubaldo couldn't be lower. I am not advising that you overpay, but if you can trade for Jimenez at a reasonable price, the upside is fairly high.

3. Henderson Alvarez - Toronto Blue Jays: Henderson Alvarez is flying under most radars. He was never ranked as an elite prospect, and his upside isn't enormous. His ability to limit walks does make him somewhat intriguing, even though his strikeout numbers figure to be ordinary. Alvarez could provide sneaky fantasy value with he potential for a very good WHIP, similar to a Doug Fister, who seems to be frequently undervalued and not trusted by fantasy owners. He will probably never be more than a SP3 or SP4 in a shallow league, but he is very polished and his price should be very cheap. Prospect lists don't factor in WHIP, which helps to conceal Alvarez's greatest fantasy asset, misleading people about his potential upside. His owner probably doesn't see a whole lot in him, so acquiring him shouldn't be expensive at all.

Additional names to consider buying: Yu Darvish, worries about the transition to the majors should keep his price reasonable, but Darvish has big upside. Matt Moore, you may have to pay a lot, but he could be a top-10 pitcher heading into 2013. Chris Sale, should earn a rotation spot this spring, high upside, but shouldn't cost much. Vance Worley, a bit lucky in 2011, but more legitimate than most people probably think.

Sells:

1. Jeremy Hellickson - Tampa Bay Rays: I should preface that I like Hellickson some and I think his skills will improve in 2012, but in certain leagues Hellickson could be the sell of the year among starting pitchers. His .223 hit rate was the lowest among qualified pitchers and his 82% strand rate was second behind only Jered Weaver. All of his ERA indicators suggest that his 2.95 ERA should have been closer to the 4.50-4.75 range. As his hit rate rises, his 5.6 strikeout rate will surely rise as fewer balls in play will be converted into outs giving him more opportunities to rack up K's each inning. His SwStr% of 9.7% also suggests that his strikeout rate was unlucky, so I expect him to produce a 7.5-8.0 K/9, with a 3.80-ish ERA and a solid WHIP, but nothing close to what he did in 2011. The real reason that Hellickson is a sell is not because his numbers looked better than they really were, it is because of the hype surrounding him heading into the 2011 season. He was ranked as the top starting pitcher on many prospect lists and since many people expected him to be good, they likely assume that his performance was skill-related. Some may even think that he will build off of his 2011 season for an even better 2012. His realistic upside is around the 15-20 range among starting pitchers, so don't fall in love with some top-5 fantasy ace "upside" that isn't really there. There is likely at least one person in your league who is willing to pay for the surface of Hellickson's 2011 numbers, it is time to find that guy.

2. Justin Verlander - Detroit Tigers: Verlander is being overvalued in early 2012 mock drafts and rankings lists. People are really falling in love with the MVP narrative and the 24 wins that he accumulated last season. Look, he is really good, but he is not a top-10 player, he is more likely to win about 20 games than 24, and he was pretty lucky in 2011. His .236 hit rate was second behind Hellickson for the lowest in all of baseball, and his 80% strand rate was 7% higher than his career average, so we can surely expect some regression heading into 2012. Verlander's ERA indicators suggest that his ERA should have been closer to 3.00, and that is close to what we should expect going forward. If you can get a top-10 player for Verlander, that is a no-brainer, and I would probably take any top-15 keeper for him as well. Take advantage of the mainstream media's portrayal of him, as the first pitcher to win an MVP since 1992. His perceived value will never be higher, it is time to cash in.

3. Ricky Romero - Toronto Blue Jays: Romero is being valued based on his luck-driven surface level stats that he produced in 2011. His .242 hit rate and 79% strand rate were among the luckiest in all of baseball, yet he is being ranked in the 60's on some 2012 draft lists. His walk rate went down a bit, but so did his strikeout rate and nothing in his profile suggests that he is any better than he was in 2010. His ERA indicators suggest an ERA near 4.00, and I would use a 3.50 ERA as a good baseline projection for 2012. I just don't understand the love here, he is solid all around, but nothing special. His peripherals are suggesting a big regression, let him regress on someone else's team.

4. Jon Lester - Boston Red Sox: Lester is perpetually overvalued, typically drafted as an elite starting pitcher, but rarely performs that way. His strikeout rate has trended downward in two straight years (8.6 in 2011), and his walk rate has stabilized at 3.5 walks per 9 over the past two years. There seems to be people predicting 20 wins for Lester every year since the Red Sox lineup is so strong, a theory that sounds reasonable until you look at Lester's workload. He has averaged just 203.1 innings over the past four years, with his career high being 210.1 in 2008. Averaging 6.3 innings per start is rarely going to get any pitcher to 20 wins. Lester should be solid again in 2012, as he always is, but there are people valuing him as a top-10 pitcher and I simply do not see it. If we use Lester's career best in each of the four separate pitching categories, he would have 18 wins, 225 strikeouts, a 3.21 ERA, and 1.20 WHIP, a projection that would just sneak him into the back-end of the top ten. He is going to have to improve in multiple areas if he his to reach any one of those numbers in 2012. Lets start valuing Lester for what he is, and not what we hope he will be.

Additional names to consider selling: Ian Kennedy, if anyone is buying into his 21 wins as a skill. Johnny Cueto, a 2.31 ERA, but mostly a product of lucky hit and strand rates highlighted by his 3.90 xFIP. Justin Masterson, I have seen him ranked inside the top-120 on a 2012 list, maybe you could get a deal that good, or close, or just a top-200 keeper. Josh Johnson, you may not be able to sell him now, but sell-healthy if he starts the season hot like he has the past two years. Josh Beckett, very lucky in 2011 and always injured, his perceived value will be higher than actual value.

Feel free to ask about any other buy and sell questions that you might have.

Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup