Coming off an injury riddled and largely disappointing 2010 campaign, Josh Beckett responded with a great 2011 season. He provided an immense amount of value for owners, posting near top-10 numbers among starting pitchers despite going as late as the 17^th or 18^th round of drafts.

Looking ahead to the 2012 season, Beckett is a tough player to project for fantasy purposes. It’s safe to say he won’t provide near the value next season as he did in 2011 and he’ll likely be overvalued based on his excellent surface numbers. While his health is seemingly always a question, there’s also the fact that he’ll be 32 in May and has already thrown more than 1700 innings across 10 major league seasons. These factors should be considered in valuing Josh Beckett in 2012.

When taking a look at his 2011 numbers beyond the sparkling 2.89 ERA, there’s no question that for as unlucky as he got in 2010, he may have been equally as lucky in 2011. Despite his fastball velocity continuing to drop, Beckett was the beneficiary of a .245 batted ball average, 80% strand rate and a rather significant uptick in his SwStk% that will be difficult to maintain going forward. I watched every one of Beckett’s starts last season and there is no question that his willingness to throw more cutters and change ups last season aided him greatly, but we still have to expect these numbers to normalize and for his ERA next season to return closer to the mid-3’s.

There’s also the issue of his health as previously mentioned. There’s somewhat of a misconception out there about Beckett being a “workhorse” over the years like CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay, & other frontline guys across the game. Beckett has actually only started 30+ games in 4 of his 10 seasons and has never thrown more than 212 innings in a season. These factors, in addition to a seemingly always balky back leave a lot of questions about Josh Beckett heading into 2012. He’s currently #23 in our Early 2012 Starting Pitcher Rankings and #100 in our Early Top 250 Rankings. I can assure you we are probably more conservative on him than most other sites out there because there are simply too many questions surrounding him.

Beckett’s going to be drafted in a lot of leagues as a SP2 because of his “bounce back” season, but starting pitching as a whole has become way too deep to take that kind of chance on him. Praying for 30 starts from a guy who you’ll be relying on to be an anchor for your staff is simply too risky. I’ve long been a fan of his and there aren’t more than a handful of guys I’d want on the mound for a big game more than him. Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean anything in fantasy baseball. Just like any other player you’re looking at on draft day, it’s best to leave emotion out of your picks and to try and not get caught up in name value. Make the best decision for yourself based on the facts. If for some reason Josh Beckett falls in your draft and he’s available as your potential SP3 or SP4 then you can certainly feel comfortable drafting him for value at that point. Other than that, let someone else pay for the name.

Follow Sean on Twitter @SeanOGuinn