2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Relief Pitchers

Since we are so close to spring training, this list shouldn't change much unless an injury, trade, or an expected playing time adjustment occurs. Here is my updated list of the top fantasy baseball relief pitchers for 2012.
1. Craig Kimbrel: Kimbrel was incredible in 2011, saving 46 games with a 2.10 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 127 strikeouts. His strikeout rate was outstanding at 14.8 strikeouts per 9. The strikeout totals are really what separates him from the rest, as most closers usually get between 60 and 70 in a season. We do have to expect him to regress some as hitters adjust to him, but he is still the number one closer going into 2012.
2. Jonathan Papelbon: Papelbon arguably had his best season yet in 2011, following two down years. He increased his strikeout rate to 12.2 K/9, an increase of 2 strikeouts per nine, and decreased his walk rate by over 2 per inning to a minuscule 1.4 per 9. His 2.94 ERA was probably unfortunate, as his 70% strand rate and .309 hit rate were much worse than his career and recent averages. Papelbon's skills bounced back and he looks to be a very good option in 2012, especially after trading the AL-east for the NL-east.
3. Mariano Rivera: He is the best relief pitcher of all time and at 41 years old he seems to still be in the prime of his career. Rivera has posted an ERA under 2.00 in four straight and eight of the last nine years and all of his peripherals are right in line with his recent stats. At his age it is natural to be fearful of a collapse, but until he proves otherwise, he is still one of fantasy's top closers.
4. John Axford: Axford was really good in 2011, finishing with a 1.95 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, with 86 strikeouts. He reduced his walk rate by over a walk per 9, and though his strikeout rate decreased, it was still at 10.5 per 9. His 83% strand rate might be a little high, but relievers often maintain higher strand rates than starting pitchers. Axford is one of the best fantasy closers in baseball, and should be among the top-5 closers selected in 2012 drafts.
5. Brian Wilson: There are many alarming numbers surrounding Wilson's 2011. His 5.1 BB/9 was his highest since 2006, and his 8.8 K/9 rate was the lowest since 2007. He really needs to improve his skills because he has one of the best relievers in baseball right behind him in Sergio Romo. Wilson should still be good, but does not come without risk in 2012.
6. Drew Storen: Storen took a step forward in 2011, increasing his strikeout rate, while decreasing his walk rate by over one walk per 9. His .246 hit rate was low, and should come up some, but his FIP and xFIP confirm his skills. His baseline ERA is somewhere around 3.00 for now, with a good WHIP, and he has the job security that goes with being drafted tenth overall to become a closer. He is safe -- for a closer -- in 2012.
7. Heath Bell: Bell is another closer who has questions to answer. His strikeout rate dropped from 11.1 to 7.3 strikeouts per 9 as his SwStr% fell to a career worst level. It was only a 62.2 inning sample, so it's not something to panic over, but he will need to bring that rate back up if he wants to be elite again. Leaving PETCO wont help, but his three-year, $27 million contract will provide extra job security.
8. Ryan Madson: Ryan Madson has been a good reliever for the past five seasons and has been very good for the past two. He did not waste his chance to close in 2011, as he saved 32 games with a 2.37 ERA. His strand rate was 80%, but his hit rate was high too at .315, so it does not appear that there will be a lot of natural regression here and every one of his ERA indicators suggest a sub-3.00 ERA is legit. Bid confidently.
9. Jose Valverde: Needless to say, Jose Valverde was lucky in 2011, as he did not blow a save all season. He benefited from a .247 hit rate and an 83% strand rate. His strikeout rate decreased for the fifth straight season (8.6 K/9 in 2011), but his walk rate remained over 4.0 per 9. He also produced his highest xFIP (4.01) of his career, further indicating that his 2.24 ERA was lucky. Valverde will be overvalued in many leagues in 2012 because of the "perfect season" narrative; it would be best to steer clear unless he falls to you.
10. Joel Hanrahan: There is a lot to like about Hanrahan's 2011 season. He was finally able to control his pitches, walking just 2.1 batters per 9, also generating a very good 52% ground ball rate, which helped him keep the ball in the park (2% HR/FB rate). His home run rate was really lucky and should correct itself, but his skill gains are encouraging. Hanrahan shouldn't keep a sub-2.00 ERA, but he appears to be a very good option heading into 2012.
11. J.J. Putz: Putz was dominant in 2011, ending up with a 2.17 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 45 saves. He, however, failed to stay healthy once again, and is no lock to pitch any more than 50-60 innings. Putz should regress a little bit, as his .245 hit rate rises and his 81% strand rate normalizes, but he should still be very good when healthy, just don't pay for a full season of work.
12. Joakim Soria: Soria did take a step backwards in 2011, but his bad luck exaggerated the decline. A high .312 hit rate (career .268) and low 72% strand rate (career 82%) contributed to a 4.03 ERA. He did have a decline in strikeout rate for the second straight season and failed to keep the ball in the park (10% HR/FB rate), but those numbers are not alarming. Soria just needs to stabilize his losses in skill to be an effective closer and if he bounces back, he has elite upside.
13. Rafael Betancourt: Betancourt simply doesn't walk anyone, posting a 1.2 BB/9 rate in each of the past two seasons, couple that with a 10.5 K/9 rate and he is going to be very good. He has been endorsed as the Rockies closer in 2012 and the departure of Huston Street confirms the Rockies confidence in him. There is top-5 closer potential here if he can maintain the job the whole season.
14. Jordan Walden: Walden fared well in his rookie season, saving 32 games with a 2.98 ERA. Nothing in his profile suggests regression, although a walk rate near 4.0 BB/9 will keep his WHIP out of the elite range. He should be able to reproduce the same value from his 2011 season and if he finds a little more control, he could be a top-10 closer.
15. Carlos Marmol: Marmol couldn't sustain his rate of 16.0 K/9 in 2011, posting a K/9 of just 12.0, to go along with a 5.8 BB/9, leading to a very inconsistent year. Marmol's profile suggests that he is a mid-to-high-3's ERA pitcher who won't come close to helping you WHIP. He does separate himself from most closers with his strikeouts, potentially offering about 40-50 more strikeouts than an average closer. Despite his upside, he does have risk, but the departure of Sean Marshall will give him a bit more breathing room should he struggle.
16. Sergio Santos: Santos is another closer who offers big time strikeout potential, striking out 92 in just 63.1 innings in 2011. He did well in his first year closing and could improve in 2012 if he reduces his high 11% HR/FB rate. If he can keep the ball in the park and can stabilize the rest of his skills he has sub-3.00 ERA upside. Santos won't be helped by the AL-east competition, but his job security improves, with "proven closer" Francisco Cordero being his main threat. Santos could go late in 2012 drafts, but could easily end up as a top-10 closer.
17. Jason Motte: Motte ended the season as the Cardinals closer and pitched well in that role and they have already endorsed him as the team's closer to begin 2012. Motte should post a good ERA and strikeout numbers, with a very good WHIP. Top-10 potential here.
18. Joe Nathan: Nathan struggled early after returning from Tommy John surgery with a first half ERA of 5.82, but improved in the second half, posting an ERA of 3.91, showing that he still has something left to offer. His overall numbers were unlucky, with a 64% strand rate (career 79%) and the highest HR/FB rate of his career (12%). His luck should correct, but moving to a tougher ballpark in Arlington won't help him keep the ball in the yard. Nathan will begin 2012 as the Rangers closer, but will need to pitch well, as elite set-up man Mike Adams is waiting in the wings.
19. Huston Street: Street has traditionally given up a high rate of home runs, but the move from Colorado to San Diego will give him a great chance to cure that tendency. Look for his ERA and WHIP to benefit from the spacious PETCO Park, but don't reach too far here as Street is always an injury candidate and could be a target for a competing team come the trade deadline.
20. Andrew Bailey: Andrew Bailey easily has top-10 closer upside, but that is contingent on him playing a full season, something he has not accomplished since 2009, only managing 49 and 41.2 innings in each of the past two seasons. Bailey should be able to keep his ERA near 3.00, with a very good WHIP, but don't take him expecting a full season. Pay for no more than 50 innings and enjoy him while he is healthy.
21. Brandon League: League put together a really nice year in his first full year as a closer, saving 37 games with a 2.79 ERA. He cut his walk rate to a very low 1.5 BB/9 and was able to keep the ball in the park better than in the past (7% HR/FB rate). His ground ball rate near 60% is great and really helps to limit his downside. League has no big threats behind him in the Mariners bullpen and is certainly a viable option in the mid-to-late rounds of 2012 drafts.
22. Kyle Farnsworth: Farnsworth recently re-signed with the Rays and looks to be the favorite for saves in Tampa. His 85% strand rate and .250 hit rate say that his 2.18 ERA is nowhere near repeatable, but he should not regress far enough to put his job in jeopardy. He did also show some growth in some areas in 2011, with a career high 51% ground ball rate, and career low 1.9 BB/9 rate. Farnsworth could again be a nice value at the end of 2012 fantasy drafts.
23. Frank Francisco: Solid skills, but frequently injured, so don't pay for a full season. The Mets paid him to be their closer, so he should keep that role when healthy. Francisco will enjoy pitching at Citi Field and in the NL-east, a nice contrast from Texas and Toronto, his two previous homes.
24. Matt Thornton: While he hasn't been able to hold down the closer role in the past, he has always had elite skills. He should get first crack at saves in 2012 for the White Sox, and even though Addison Reed will be breathing down his neck, he could keep the job. Reasons for worry: slight increase in BB/9, decrease in K/9 (but 9.5 is still very good), and a 4.5% drop in SwStr%, showing that his stuff may not be as elite as it used to be.
25. Kenley Jansen: Jansen has a couple of things going for him: He is really, really good, and Javy Guerra is the only thing between him and the closer's role. Jansen struck out an outstanding 16.1 batters per 9 innings in 2011, walking just 4.3. He had a 2.85 ERA that his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.09) say was unlucky. He could provide Craig Kimbrel type value if he earned the closer role and is worthy of a late round pick in all leagues no matter his role entering 2012.
26. Chris Perez: Perez took a step backwards in 2011 for the second straight season, reducing his strikeout rate to 5.9 K/9, down from 10.7 K/9 in 2009. He also benefited from a very low .234 hit rate, while giving up a career high 21% line drive rate. His ground ball rate also regressed from a low 34% to a much lower 28%. If his luck driven 6% HR/FB rate increases and his skills don't change, he could really have a tough time maintaining his job in 2012, be careful here.
27. Grant Balfour: Balfour looks like the best closer option in the Oakland bullpen heading into 2012. His .232 hit rate and 89% strand rate were lucky, so don't expect an ERA near the 2.47 that he had in 2011. He does demonstrates good control and a high K/9, indicating that he has the skills to maintain the role for the whole year. He is no guarantee, but there is top-15 closer upside here.
28. Matt Capps: Should start the year as the Twins closer, but that is where the positives end. His 4.7 K/9 in 2011, and sharp decline in SwStr% will make it very difficult for him to keep the job the whole year.
29. Jim Johnson: Johnson won't strike out many hitters, but has good control, walking only 2.1 batters per 9 in 2011. He has been solid the past two seasons and stayed healthy in 2011, pitching 91 innings. He looks to be the opening day closer in Baltimore, but his upside is very limited by his skills and the tough AL East that he pitches in. Additionally, the arrival of Matt Lindstrom further complicates Johnson's situation, but he should still be drafted in all but the shallowest of leagues.
30. Javy Guerra: Guerra may be the closer to start the season for the Dodgers, but there are plenty of reasons why he could lose that job early in 2012. His surface stats looked good in 2011, but 2.31 ERA and 1.18 WHIP will be difficult to repeat with a 7.3 K/9 rate and 3.5 BB/9 rate. He also had very a lucky .261 hit rate as well as a lucky 83% strand rate. On skills alone he is risky, but the presence of Kenley Jansen (see below) will make his job security very volatile at best. Proceed with extreme caution.
31. Jonny Venters: Venters probably has top-5 closer upside, so it's too bad Craig Kimbrel just might be the best closer in baseball. Venters finished 2011 with a 1.84 ERA to compliment his 1.95 ERA from 2010. His peripherals look almost identical to his 2011, so he should be very good again. He generates most of his success from the 73% ground ball rate that he generated in 2011 (14% fly ball rate), a number that really limits his downside. Draft him for his good ratios and strikeout totals, just don't expect Kimbrel to lose the job anytime soon.
32. Mike Adams: Adams is one of the best relievers in baseball posting 0.73, 1.76, and 1.47 ERAs over the past three seasons. It is hard to project another sub-2.00 ERA for Adams as his .212 hit rate and 88% strand rate should regress and leaving PETCO for Texas won't help him keep the ball in the park. Regardless, Adams is one of the best handcuffs in fantasy baseball and if Joe Nathan struggles, Adams would have top-5 closer upside.
33. Addison Reed: Reed has shown great dominance in the minors, producing a K/9 of over 12.0 at almost all levels, while consistently walking less than 2.0. Matt Thornton should begin the year as the closer in Chicago, but Reed could attain the role quickly if Thornton struggles. There is easily top-5 closer upside here, but he needs the job first.
34. Sean Marshall: Marshall will provide good ratios and pitches enough innings to help fantasy owners in strikeouts too. He has shown growth in his walk rate, improving it in two straight seasons, down to 2.0 BB/9 in 2011, and has increased his ground ball rate in three straight years helping him keep the ball in the park, something he could not do in his earlier years. Marshall has the skills to be a closer -- though being left handed doesn't earn him bonus points --, but Ryan Madson is just about as solid as they come, so don't draft him expecting many saves.
35. Vinnie Pestano: Pestano was exceptional in 2011, striking out 84 batters in just 62 innings, with a 2.32 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He may have been a bit lucky, but should again pitch at a high level in 2012. Pestano is much better than Chris Perez right now and should be considered one of the best handcuffs in fantasy baseball. If Perez's luck corrects and his skills don't rebound, Pestano could find himself in the closers role early into the 2012 season, and that outcome does not look all that unlikely right now.
36. Sergio Romo: Skills wise and on a per inning basis, Sergio Romo is probably the best relief pitcher in baseball. He finished the 2011 season with a 13.1 K/9 rate with a 0.9 BB/9 rate, that's a 14:1 K/BB ratio, a number that is almost incomprehensible. If Romo's 1.50 ERA and 0.71 WHIP are not good enough, his FIP (0.96) and SIERA (0.97) indicate that his numbers could have been even better. We should not expect his numbers to be this good, but he is beyond elite and easily has top-5 closer upside if he were to find himself in that role. The only thing keeping him this low is his under-use by manager Bruce Bochy (only 48 innings pitched in 2011).
37. Greg Holland: The Royals picked up Joakim Soria's option making Holland a set-up man at this point, but he does has talent, as he showed in his 11.1 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 rates. It is unlikely that he repeats his 1.80 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, as his .250 hit rate and 83% strand rate should regress some, but he should still be good and if the Royal are not contending in July and decide to cash in on Soria, Holland would likely be the favorite for saves in Kansas City -- although a lot can change between now and then. Holland is only a play in deeper leagues, but is one to keep an eye on as the 2012 season progresses.
38. Francisco Rodriguez: Rodriguez will set-up for John Axford in 2012, but still has very good skills and makes for a potential mid-season trade target for teams looking for a closer should Milwaukee find themselves out of contention.
39. Tyler Clippard: Great strikeout rate, and cut his walk significantly in 2011. His .197 hit rate and 96% strand rate were absurdly high, so his 1.83 ERA should be nowhere near repeatable in 2012. His 60% fly ball rate will keep his hit rate low and strand rate high, but it also causes him to concede a high amount of home runs, which limits his appeal as a potential closer.
40. David Robertson: Dominant in 2011 with a 13.5 K/9. His low 2% HR/FB rate will rise, so his 1.08 won't repeat, but his skills are good enough to close, unfortunately Mariano Rivera is the most consistent and reliable closer in baseball history, so don't pay for saves here.
41. Aroldis Chapman
42. Alexi Ogando
43. Wilton Lopez: Could close in Houston, and has decent skills, but lacks significant upside, and in Houston save opportunities may be hard to come by.
44. Fernando Salas: Salas was good in 2011, earning 24 saves before turning the job over to Jason Motte, but with Motte entering 2012 as the Cardinals closer, Salas' value will be more limited.
45. Dan Bard
46. Koji Uehara: Elite skills, (11.8 K/9, 1.3 BB/9), but his late season performance in Texas should keep him far away from any closer role early in 2012. Uehara will still provide good a ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts totals though.
47. Rex Brothers: Next in line in Colorado and will give owners plenty of strikeouts (13.1 K/9 in 2011). Brothers has closer upside, but Betancourt is elite, so don't bank on him losing the job.
48. David Hernandez: Improved strikeout and walk rates, next in line in Arizona and should get a couple of saves if J.J. Putz gets hurt again, as he often does.
48. Joel Peralta: His .218 hit rate should rise, but his ERA should still be solid. Good strikeout ability and very good control will lead to a good WHIP. Could close if Farnsworth struggles.
49. Brian Fuentes: Could still open the year as the closer in Oakland and has "closer experience", so may get an opportunity that he doesn't really deserve. His xFIP was 4.50 in 2011 and his K/9 declined sharply, so don't invest very much here.
50. Fautino De Los Santos: Big strikeout upside, decent control. Could close in Oakland, but may only be the third option heading into spring training.
51. Brandon Lyon: Another option to close in Houston, and he may be the current favorite, but Lyon just isn't very good. High BB/9, low K/9 really make him very risky.
52. Antonio Bastardo: Good source of strikeouts; his .179 hit rate will rise, but his ERA and WHIP should still be solid. Little chance to assume closer role, however, as Papelbon is as good as ever.
53. Joaquin Benoit: Good ERA, very good WHIP. Has closer upside, but Jose "perfect year" Valverde will have a long leash to begin 2012.
54. Glen Perkins: Big jump in SwStr% and K/9 in first full season as a reliever in 2011. With Matt Capps' ineptitudes, Perkins makes for a good sleeper for saves in Minnesota.
55. Edward Mujica: Elite control should give him a very good WHIP.
56. Francisco Cordero: Cordero will be 37 years old shortly after next season begins and he is clearly declining even though he posted a 2.45 ERA in 2011. His strikeout rate has declined sharply in four straight seasons from 12.2 K/9 in 2010 to just 5.4 K/9 in 2011. He was extremely fortunate to have a .214 hit rate and 82% strand rate, both of those numbers are the luckiest of his career. He posted the highest FIP of his career, and has had an xFIP over 4.00 for three straight seasons. The one positive is that he seems to have adapted to his skills decline by inducing a 50% ground ball rate, pitching in Toronto, in the AL-east could really leave Cordero exposed, proceed with caution here.
57. Luke Gregerson: Strikeout rate dropped to 5.5 in 2011 and his xFIP was 4.11. The sample size wasn't huge and his track record says he can bounce back, but there is reason for worry.
58. Rafael Soriano
59. Ernesto Frieri: Good strikeout totals and his high fly ball rate plays well in PETCO Park.
60. Scott Downs: Strikeout rate was down, but 60% ground ball rate is great. His 1.34 ERA will rise when his .218 hit rate and 86% strand rate correct.
61. Eric O'Flaherty: Don't pay for his 0.98 ERA from 2011, a 92% strand rate and 4% HR/FB rate were major components. He should still be good, but more in the mid-2's with the ERA. Lack of strikeouts and low likelihood of assuming closer role in Atlanta keep him from being higher on this list.
62. Jesse Crain
63. Alfredo Aceves: Most of his value is in the volume of innings that he pitches. Don't look at the 10 wins from 2011 when determining his 2012 value.
64. Mark Melancon: Melancon pitched well in 2011, but wasn't very valuable as a fantasy closer, because the Astros rarely gave him opportunities to save games. Melancon's numbers indicate he should be able keep a decent ERA and WHIP, and his 57% ground ball rate is very nice, but pitching in the AL-east will make things difficult on him.
65. Nick Masset
66. Casey Janssen
67. Matt Lindstrom: Low strikeout rate and pitching in the AL-east will be treacherous, but could close if Johnson struggles.
68. Matt Belisle: Great control. Two-year increase in ground ball rate shows upside if the trend continues.
69. Bobby Parnell: Parnell entered the offseason as the favorite for saves for the Mets, but with the signings of Frank Francisco, John Rauch, and Ramon Ramirez, Parnell is nowhere near that role now. He should keep a reasonable ERA, good strikeout numbers, but his WHIP should be poor if he continues to walk over 4.0 batters per 9. Too much in his way to consider him a viable sleeper for saves in New York.
70. Ramon Ramirez: Could be close if Frank Francisco gets hurt in 2012, as he often does.
71. Octavio Dotel
72. Eduardo Sanchez: Good strikeout rate, should have good ratios.
73. Tim Collins
74. David Carpenter: Strand rate was a bit high, so he shouldn't keep his ERA under 3.00 again, but his high strikeout ability makes him a sleeper for saves in Houston, where there are no clearly established roles heading into spring.
75. Darren Oliver
76. Henry Rodriguez: Big strikeout potential with his fastball that averaged 98 mph, but control is bad and should result in a high WHIP.
77. Jonathan Broxton
78. Chris Resop
79. Kevin Gregg: Not a very good pitcher, but somehow always ends up in a closer role. That seems less likely this year, since his strikeout rate has decreased in two straight years and his walk rate soared to over 6.0 in 2011. He will hurt your ERA, hurt your WHIP, and won't give you a ton of strikeouts, let someone else deal with him.
80. Aaron Crow
81. Tony Sipp
82. Jeremy Affeldt
83. Jose Veras
84. Louis Coleman
85. Chad Qualls
86. Andrew Cashner
87. Juan Abreu
88. Michael Stutes
89. Santiago Casilla
90. Kerry Wood
91. Takashi Saito
92. Kameron Loe
93. Jake McGee
94. Joe Smith
95. Jeff Samardzija
96. Logan Ondrusek
97. Evan Meek
98. J.P. Howell
99. Brandon Bass
100. Mark Rzepczynski
101. Juan Oviedo
102. Darren O'Day
103. Brad Boxberger: Big time strikeout potential, but the Padres bullpen is extremely deep, so emerging will be very tough. A very deep saves sleeper though.
104. Hisanori Takahashi
105. Jason Frasor
106. Rich Thompson
107. Matt Guerrier
108. Christian Martinez
109. Shawn Kelly
110. Dan Wheeler
111. Josh Lindblom
112. Lance Lynn
113. John Rauch
114. Brandon Kintzler
115. Joey Devine
116. Jose Contreras
All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).
Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup

Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-04-04 00:42:51
@Michael24:
Yes, Marshall is really good and could end up being a top-5 closer by season's end. He now ranks near the top-15.

Michael24
Posted at 2012-04-03 22:03:49
I'm guessing Marshall is more valuable now