2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: DH
Since we are so close to spring training, this list shouldn't change much unless an injury, trade, or an expected playing time adjustment occurs. Here is my updated list of the top fantasy baseball designated hitters for 2012.
1. Jesus Montero: Montero should be guaranteed everyday at bats in Seattle, where he may not have in New York, but his numbers will definitely suffer on a per-game basis. Seattle decreases right handed home runs by 18%, which lower’s Montero’s power upside some, the park may also cost him a bit in batting average as well. He still has very high upside, but his lack of major league experience shouldn't be overlooked. Montero is expected to catch two or three games per week to begin the year, so should gain catcher eligibility around the beginning of May. If he already has catcher eligibility in your league, then refer to my 2012 Fantasy Baseball Catcher Rankings. Lets now get one thing clear, David Ortiz is the number one DH, but since Montero should attain catcher eligibility early into the 2012 season, he should be selected first.
2. David Ortiz: Ortiz is nearly 36 years old, but shows no real signs of decline. He reduced his strike out rate from 24% in 2010 to 14% in 2011, showing that his .309 batting average was not all that lucky. He has also hit at least 28 home runs and has driven at least 96 runs in each of the past three seasons. The only negative was his 37% fly ball rate (44% career) that could cap his power ceiling if not corrected. Ortiz is a very good source of power, and he almost always falls in drafts, don't be afraid to pick him for the right price.
3. Billy Butler: Butler has a very stable set of skills, and is not trending heavily in any meaningful peripheral. Expect him to produce his normal numbers: a home run total close to 20, with a baseline average near .300, and no speed to speak of. There are those who think Butler will hit 30 home runs someday, but nothing in his underlying numbers suggest that will come in 2012, stay conservative here.
4. Johnny Damon: Damon had a very respectable year, bouncing back from a poor 2010 with 16 home runs and 19 stolen bases. Almost all of his indicators are in line with his career numbers, so another 15/15 season with a neutral batting average should be attainable for him. Damon is still unsigned, so where he lands will obviously make a difference on where he should be drafted.
5. Valdimir Guerrero: Guerrero really fell backwards in 2011, hitting 16 less homers than he hit in 2010, as he suffered from an 8% HR/FB rate, by far the lowest of his career. With the fact that Guerrero will be 37 before the start of the 2012 season, we have to wonder how much of his power is actually likely to return. Either way, his HR/FB rate should come back some, allowing Guerrero to hit for high-teens power, with a good batting average. Like Damon, Guerrero is still unsigned and his value will change depending on the situation he finds himself in.
6. Travis Hafner: When Hafner plays he is a good source of power, with a solid batting average. The problem is that Hafner has played in 57, 94, 118, and 94 games the past four seasons. He is really only a play in very deep leagues or AL-only leagues, don't count on his health.
7. Jim Thome: Thome is 41 years old, but still showed good power in 2011, producing a .220 isolated power and a 22% HR/FB rate (career 28%), so he should be able to help your power on a per-game basis in 2012. He won't hit for a high average with his 28% strike out rate and now that he is in the NL, if is to get playing time, he will have to play in the field -- something that the Phillies would surely like to avoid -- so his at bats should be limited. Avoid in leagues where at bats aren't scarce.
8. Jack Cust: 32% strikeout rate, .116 isolated power (declined for fourth straight year), and .213 average in 2011 doesn't bode well for Cust heading into 2012. Now with the Astros he will need to play in the field to earn ABs, and with the way he fields, the Astros will want to do everything in their power to prevent that from happening. Cust is just two years removed from a 25 HR year, so some power upside may still be present, but don't pay for much more than 250 PAs.
All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).
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