Miguel Cabrera is soon to be fantasy baseball's top third baseman

Since we are so close to spring training, this list shouldn't change much unless an injury, trade, or an expected playing time adjustment occurs. Here is my updated list of the top fantasy baseball third basemen for 2012.

1. Miguel Cabrera: (assumes he gains third base eligibility sometime this April) Miguel Cabrera just keeps getting better; he has significantly improved his K% for the fourth straight year, and improved his BB% for the third straight year. If these skills stabilize, Cabrera could compete for a batting title for the foreseeable future. A low fly ball rate contributed to a 30 home run season, with a small correction he should return to his usual mid thirties total in 2012. Cabrera should gain third base eligibility at some point this April, and will rank number one at the position.

2. Jose Bautista: Jose Bautista followed up his improbable breakout 2010 season, by consolidating his elite skill level. His K% and BB% have trended positively for three straight seasons now, with his BB% jumping to an outrageous 20%. With a 47% fly ball rate (only 16% line drive rate), it may be realistic to expect his .309 hit rate to fall towards his .277 career mark, meaning that his batting average should be more neutral rather than positive to your overall mark. Expect Bautista to make another push for 40 home runs, making him well worth an early-to-mid first round pick.

3. Evan Longoria: Longoria finished the season torridly after dealing with an oblique injury for most of the first half of the year, finishing with 31 home runs in just 133 games, as his isolated power rebounded to its traditional level. Longoria's K% and BB% have trended positively for three straight seasons, meaning that if his .239 hit rate corrects itself, as it should, then he could push towards a .300 average. All of the skills are in place for Longoria to be an absolute monster, don't be shy to snag him if he falls at all in 2012 drafts.

4. Adrian Beltre: Following a very good year in 2010, Beltre really thrived in a very good hitting environment in Texas, producing better numbers in 124 games than he did in 154 games in Boston. He posted a career low 10% strike out rate, meaning that if he can correct his low .273 hit rate, his batting average could very easily bounce back over the .300 mark. His fly ball rate and HR/FB rate should fall back a little bit, but if he stays healthy the whole season he could hit 35 home runs with counting stats boosted heavily by Texas' strong lineup. If Beltre is your starting third baseman in 2012, then you have done well.

5. David Wright: Injuries forced Wright to miss 60 games in 2011, but while he was active he put together a 20/20, 90/90 pace, so don't be too scared off by Wright's performance. Wright's low .254 batting average was fueled by a career low .302 hit rate (career .340), so I would place Wright's baseline average more in the .280 range for 2012. He has offered concern for three straight seasons (2009 power outage, increased K% peaking at 24% in 2010, and the health and low batting average in 2011), so he is definitely a risk/reward play in 2012, proceed with discretion.

6. Pablo Sandoval: Sandoval only managed 117 games in 2011, but his per game numbers bounced back very nicely from his disappointing 2010. His career high 16% HR/FB rate should regress, but closer to his 2009 mark (14%) than his 2010 mark (7%), meaning 25 home runs could be in play if he can manage a full season of health. Sandoval's strikeout and hit rates were in line with his career numbers in 2011, so a .300+ average should be expected in 2012. Sandoval could be a good value in 2012 drafts, don't be shy.

7. Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman played a career low 101 games in 2011, which was accompanied by a career low 11% HR/FB rate and 34% fly ball rate, culminating in a 12 home run season. Both of those rates should revert towards his career average, making him a mid-twenties home run threat once again, but they are slight cause for concern. All of his other peripheral numbers are very stable, so expect production close to his normal levels. He should be healthier, but don't pay for a full season.

8. Michael Young: Young hit just 11 home runs in 2011, but his .338 batting average carried him to a very good fantasy season. A near 5% decrease in his traditional K% means that his gain in average was somewhat validated, although a .367 hit rate suggests that his average will regress some either way. His power should bounce back to the mid-teens level to offset his batting average loss, and his counting stats should be really strong as well. For what Young lacks in upside, he makes up for in reliability.

9. Brett Lawrie: In a 43 game sample in 2011, Brett Lawrie showed why fantasy owners were eagerly anticipating his call-up. He put up an impressive .293/.373/.580 line with 9 home runs and 7 stolen bases. Lawrie brings an interesting power/speed combo to the table and should have a solid chance for a 20/20 season in 2012, and if everything falls right, he probably has 25/25 upside. Lets not get too enthusiastic over his small major league sample, he is still very unproven so beware of an adjustment period.

10. Alex Rodriguez: Going into 2011 it was clear you were drafting A-Rod for less than 140 games, but after his 99 games played in 2011, it would be more realistic to expect around 120. Rodriguez produced the lowest isolated power (.185) since 1997 and a career low 15% HR/FB rate and considering his age, I wouldn't expect a huge bounce back. He probably still has mid-twenties potential in home runs and should accumulate plenty of counting stats in a good Yankees lineup. Don't expect 30/120, but don't write him off completely.

11. Aramis Ramirez: 2010 was a year that saw Aramis' skills decline in a couple of significant areas (line drive rate, K%, poor health), so his bounce back in 2011 was a big relief. Ramirez's peripherals all returned very close to his career levels, indicating that 2010 was more of an aberration than the beginning of his demise. His new home park should be about equal to Wrigley field, but his lineup support should be better. Expect mid-twenties home run power, an average approaching .300, and a DL stint (probably).

12. Kevin Youkilis: Youkilis will be 33 years old on opening day next year and he has not managed 140 games since 2008. A low 38% fly ball rate contributed to a depressed home run total in 2011...if this doesn't correct, his home run upside will be limited. His .296 hit rate should bump closer to his .329 career mark giving him a chance to return to his usual .300 batting average. Youk should bounce back some, but health will be a concern, pay for no more than 130 games.

13. Mark Reynolds: As an elite power source at third base, Reynolds hit 37 home runs in his first year in Baltimore. His putrid .221 batting average was fueled by his low .266 hit rate, so if that bounces back towards his .310 career level, and he can maintain his contact gains, then he may have some room for batting average growth. Draft him for his power, and a little speed, and hope for an average only hurts you, not kills you.

14. Martin Prado: Prado couldn't match his 2010 break out in 2011, producing an unappealing .260/.302/.385 line. His batting average was hurt by a low .266 hit rate (career .315), but much of that regression was caused by a poor 15% line drive rate. Though a career low 9% strikeout rate is great for his average, he needs to fix his swing if he wants to again hit over .300. Prado offers moderate power and very little speed, therefore much of his value is derived from his batting average, an average that I have concern about.

15. Ryan Roberts: Ryan Roberts may have been the biggest surprise at second base in 2011, hitting 19 home runs, and stealing 18 bases. He really thrived while getting regular playing time for the first time in his career. Roberts is 31 years old, making it a very odd time to break out, so don't expect him to take another step forward. Mid-teens power and speed with a low batting average is reasonable to expect, but that has value in all leagues, don't dismiss him if he falls in your draft.

16. Emilio Bonifacio: Bonifacio had an unforeseeable break out in 2011, hitting .296 with 5 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He had just 1 home run and 40 steals is his 4 prior seasons combined. Bonifacio benefited from a very high .375 hit rate, which should fall towards his .339 career mark, giving him a baseline batting average closer to .270. He has never had regular playing time prior to 2011, but if he can maintain a starting spot, he can put up numbers close to his 2011 totals. As of now he figures to start in center field, but should the Marlins sign Yoenis Cespedes, Bonifacio's value would take a significant hit.

17. Chase Headley: Headley was having another Headley-type season before his season was cut short by injury. He will offer boarder-line double digits in home runs, with stolen bases in the mid-teens. His high .368 hit rate should revert towards his .339 career mark. Though he has the hitting tools to maintain a high hit rate, his high strike out rate over 20% will limit his batting average ceiling. He should be decent, but lacks upside.

18. David Freese: Brittle is a fair description of David Freese. He has played in a total of 70 and 97 games in each of the past two seasons, also missing significant time in 2009 while spending much of the season in the minors. Freese is a very good hitter, posting a career 23% line drive rate, enabling him to hit for high batting averages, while maintaining a 20%+ strike out rate. With a better fly ball rate (23% in 2011) Freese has 20 home run potential, but counting on him for a full season is a fool's bet. Don't pay for more than 100 games, and don't pay for his 2011 postseason.

19. Mike Moustakas: A .263/.309/.367 line is all Moustakas could manage in his first 89 games for the Royals in 2011. His .104 isolated power would have tied him for 15th worst in all of baseball if he had enough at bats to qualify. One positive was his low 14% strike out rate, showing that he was not completely overmatched. Moustakas has very good raw power, he hit 36 home runs in 2010, spending time in both double and triple-A. Expect Moustakas to take a step forward this year, but he is only an end-game flier in shallow-mixed leagues at this point.

20. Chipper Jones: You can count on Chipper Jones to miss at least 30 games, but his skills do still have value. He could offer mid to upper-teens in home runs, a respectable batting average, with decent counting stats if Freddie Gonzalez keeps him near the heart of the Atlanta lineup. He can be solid, but if you are looking for upside late in a shallow league, pass on Chipper.

21. Dayan Viciedo: Viciedo has little major league experience, but his isolated power of around .200 in the minors hints at his power potential. He has a good chance to play everyday in the White Sox outfield in 2012 where he could easily hit 20 home runs, with upside for more in Chicago's homer friendly park. Don't blind yourself with his power upside; he has no speed and probably won't help your batting average much.

22. Daniel Murphy: Murphy looks set to receive regular at bats and should hit in the number two spot in a weakened Mets lineup. He is a good bet to provide 10-15 home runs, 5-10 steals, and a good batting average. Murphy doesn't have enormous upside, but he is a viable option in 12-team mixed leagues and deeper to begin 2012.

23. Placido Polanco: Polanco should offer a relatively empty batting average. His K% is slowly creeping upward, but at 8%, it is still really good. He doesn't offer much upside at all, but you know are still getting reliable production and that has value in deeper leagues.

24. Edwin Encarnacion: Health is not one of Edwin Encarnacion's best skills, he played just 85, 96, and 134 games in each of the past three seasons. When healthy, he is a good source of power, and though he only hit 17 home runs in 2011, a low 9% HR/FB rate was a major factor, expect that rate to bounce back to somewhere around his recent rate near 13%. Encarnacion won't really help your batting average, but if he can stay healthy, he has 25-30 home run upside.

25. Danny Valencia: Danny Valencia did not blow up in his first full season, but he does have something to offer. He hit 15 home runs, with a .246 average, but has no speed. His .275 hit rate was probably a little unfortunate, so his average shouldn't hurt too much going forward. There isn't a lot of projection here, so Valencia is not an option in shallow leagues.

26. Lonnie Chisenhall: Chisenhall had a slightly better showing than Mike Moustakas did in 2011, but his raw skills aren't as good as Moustakas'. Chisenhall needs to significantly cut his 22% strike out rate, or he will be a batting average risk. If he takes a step forward, 20 home runs isn't out of the question, but with no speed to speak of, his upside is not as high as Moustakas'. He could be solid, but he is not an elite prospect.

27. Pedro Alvarez: To call his 2011 season abysmal would be flattering to Pedro Alvarez. A line of .191/.272/.289 is usually a line you see from a weak hitting pitcher, but that was Alvarez's slash line in 2011. There are no positives to take from his 31% strike out rate, or his .089 isolated power, but he did play slightly better following his demotion to triple-A. He has upside in his raw power, just pray that pitchers throw him enough mistakes for him to generate some value.

28. Scott Sizemore: While a 26% strikeout rate won't help his batting average any, Sizemore did walk 12% of the time and increased his isolated power to .155 in 2011 as he hit 11 home runs. He should be good for double-digit power once again, adding a couple of steals, but he will continue to carry a risky batting average until he learns to make more consistent contact.

29. Sean Rodriguez: Rodriguez is slotted to start at shortstop for the Rays in 2012. He cut his strikeout rate by 6% in 2011 and his low .268 hit rate should bounce back, giving him room for some batting average growth (career .229 hitter). He has the power to hit 15 home runs and the speed to steal 20 bases provided he gets 600+ plate appearances, but since he has never got 450, we shouldn't pay for that. If everything falls right in 2012, Rodriguez could be a top-15 second baseman in 2012.

30. Mike Aviles: Aviles should share time at short for the Red Sox. Even with half of the at bats he could reach double-digit home runs and stolen bases. There is good upside here if his playing time increased.

31. Brent Morel: Morel has decent power and a bit of speed. He got 444 plate appearances in 2011 and with the current state of the White Sox depth chart, he looks ready for more than that in 2012. Don't pass up Morel if he slides too far in your draft.

32. Mat Gamel: Gamel has struggled every time he has been given a chance at the major league level, but in 2011 he cut his strikeout rate to 16% and hit 28 home runs at triple-A. A breakout is still possible, as he should get every opportunity to succeed.

33. Jed Lowrie: Lowrie should get plenty of at bats in Houston. He lacks significant upside, but he can hit 10-15 home runs, without killing your average.

34. Maicer Izturis: Aside from the double-digit steal potential, Izturis offers very little in terms of fantasy value. He is only a 6-8 home run guy if he plays 110 games. His strike out rate has increased in three straight years from 8% in 2008 to 13% in 2011, so don't bank on the neutral batting average that he has shown in the past. If this trend continues, then he will begin to be a batting average risk. Izturis will find it tough to get playing time in the crowded Angels lineup.

35. Jimmy Paredes: Paredes could get full time at bats at third base in Houston if he can maintain an adequate level of production. He doesn't profile as much more than a 10 home run hitter, but his speed could range from 15 to 30 steals depending on how aggressive the Astros let him get. He clearly has upside, but his playing time uncertainty is something to heed.

36. Scott Rolen: Rolen's 2011 hit rate of .262 should jump closer to .300 in 2012 and his 6% HR/FB rate should also rebound, but his walk rate dropped dramatically to 4% and he only played in 65 games due to injury so there is legitimate reason for concern. Power and contact skill remain solid, but proceed with caution here.

37. Wilson Betemit: Betemit's outrageous .391 hit rate will decline, but his career rate is .341, so he won't fall too far. His strikeout rate jumped 6% to 29% too, so he could become a batting average risk if that number doesn't rebound. The move to Baltimore will help him out though, as it raises LH power by 18% and RH power by 23%.

38. Ty Wigginton: Wigginton can play multiple positions (poorly), which will keep him in the lineup long enough to generate some fantasy value. He had a .271 hit rate in 2011, causing a low .242 batting average, expect an uptick in 2012, putting his baseline average closer to .260. With the Phillies aging lineup, Wigginton should find somewhat regular playing time throughout the year.

39. Eduardo Nunez: Nunez could see a moderate amount of playing time filling in for injured Yankees infielders in 2012. He stole 22 bases in 2011 in just 338 plate appearances, and while he won't hit for a ton of power, his batting average won't hurt you either. Don't let Nunez fall to far if you need speed this late in a draft.

40. Kyle Seager: Seager isn't guaranteed to make the Mariners roster out of spring, so monitor his situation as the season approaches. If he does win the job, he could make for a good sleeper in deep leagues, capable of accumulating double-digit home runs and steals to go along with a solid batting average.

41. Alberto Callaspo: Callaspo provides fantasy owners with a good batting average that is pretty empty. He will have a chance to reach double-digit home runs, with about 5-10 stolen bases, but that is about the ceiling for Callaspo who posted a very poor .086 isolated power in 2011. Callaspo will provide health, as he has played over 140 games in three straight seasons, but not much else. The Angels plan on giving Mark Trumbo a look at third; whether or not Trumbo wins the job will determine if Callaspo moves up or down this list.

42. Casey McGehee: After two good seasons in 2009 and 2010, McGehee really took a step backward in 2011, hitting just .223 with 13 home runs. Expect his .249 hit rate to climb back towards his .290 career level. Also expect his low 9% HR/FB rate to bounce back some (career 11%). McGehee's playing time will be tied to the success of Pedro Alvarez, and if Alvarez succeeds, McGehee could have very little value at all.

43. Justin Turner: Pay for about five homers and five steals from Turner who should act as infield depth for the Mets.

44. Ian Stewart: In 136 plate appearances in 2011, Stewart failed to hit a home run, and batted .156 with an atrocious .066 isolated power. He will get another chance to prove himself in 2012 with the Cubs, but don't reach for his name value, his skills needs to improve in more than one area to return to relevancy.

45. Chone Figgins: Figgins hit .188 in 2011, but his .215 hit rate was extremely unlucky and should rebound in 2012. His playing time is a question as of now, but he has definite upside this late in a draft.

46. Chris Johnson: When he plays, he is decent, but don't pay for everyday at bats.

47. Juan Uribe: Uribe's posted a career high 20% strikeout rate and career low .089 isolated power in 2011. He should bounce back some, but beware of his decline in skills.

48. Adam Kennedy: Kennedy is versatile, so he could earn playing time at a number of positions for the Dodgers in 2012. He could steal a handful of bases, but won't contribute much elsewhere.

49. Casey Blake: Blake still has power, and with regular playing time he could be a good value here.

50. Juan Francisco: Francisco will back up the often-injured Scott Rolen in Cincinnati. If he were to get regular playing time he has 20 home run power, and his average shouldn't hurt too much either.

51. Jose Lopez: Lopez's isolated power bounced back nicely in 2011, but his .214 hit rate was extremely unlucky, making him a good bounce-back candidate.

52. Tyler Greene: Green has decent power and good speed, but is a big batting average risk and he may have trouble finding playing time.

53. Brandon Inge: He won't get much playing time to begin the 2012 season, but once the Tigers realize how bad Miguel Cabrera is at third, Inge might get some more playing time. In either scenario, Inge offers little fantasy value.

54. Daniel Descalso: May see time at second base in St Louis, but won't produce much fantasy-wise.

55. Wilson Valdez: Offers roster flexibility, but nothing else.

All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).

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