Albert Pujols remains fantasy baseball's top first baseman in Los Angeles

Since we are so close to spring training, this list shouldn't change much unless an injury, trade, or an expected playing time adjustment occurs. Here is my updated list of the top fantasy baseball first basemen for 2012.

1. Albert Pujols: Pujols shrugged off early questions about his performance, as he finished the year in normal Pujols fashion. He did have a curious 5% decrease in his walk rate, and produced one of the lowest isolated power numbers (.242) in his career to go along with the highest ground ball rate (45%) of his career. He also increased his swing% at pitches outside the strike zone for the fourth consecutive year. His new ballpark decreases right-handed power by 7%, much better than the 26% in St Louis, so Pujols may have some power upside in Los Angeles. He remains the number one first baseman in fantasy baseball, but not without a couple of question marks, the gap is closing.

2. Miguel Cabrera: Miguel Cabrera just keeps getting better; he has significantly improved his K% for the fourth straight year, and improved his BB% for the third straight year. If these skills stabilize, Cabrera could compete for a batting title for the foreseeable future. A low fly ball rate contributed to a 30 home run season, with a small correction he should return to his usual mid thirties total in 2012. Cabrera should gain third base eligibility at some point this April, which does increase his value, but with the depth of third, he still doesn't overtake Pujols.

3. Joey Votto: Votto's underlying skills are pretty stable, although his K% and BB% are both trending positively. As expected, Votto did not maintain the huge HR/FB spike (25%) from 2010, as it fell to 18% this season. I would expect him to settle in somewhere in between those two marks in 2012, which should mean Votto once again hits over 30 home runs.

4. Adrian Gonzalez: Adrian Gonzalez had a very good first season in Boston, but much of his batting average value was driven by a .380 hit rate (.322 career). Gonzalez didn't take full advantage of leaving PETCO as he only managed a 32% fly ball rate, a small correction towards his career 38% mark and a small HR/FB rate increase should see him, like Votto, again go over the 30 home run mark. The main reason Votto is ranked ahead of Gonzalez is the sneaky handful of steals that you can count on Votto for, while Gonzalez will be lucky to steal one.

5. Prince Fielder: Detroit decreases left-handed power by 12%, while Milwaukee increased it by 18%, so Fielder should lose about three or four home runs in his new home. His .299 batting average in 2011 was not a product of luck, as Prince decreased his annual 19% strike out rate by 4%. If Prince can maintain this improvement, he may push above a .300 batting average and make a real claim for the top four at his position.

6. Mark Teixeira: Teixeira's hit rate decreased in 2011 for the fourth straight year, contributing to a career low .248 batting average. Most of Teixeira's baseline skills are stable, but over the past two years (he hit .256 in 2010) he has drastically increased the amount of pitches he has chased outside the strike zone (27% and 28%) and increased his contact rate on pitches outside of the strike zone (69% both years), contributing to his batting average being a liability. Don't look at his low hit rate and conclude that he will bounce back to his .300 days.

7. Paul Konerko: Paul Konerko has produced far more value than his draft slot would demand in two straight years, hitting 39 and 31 home runs respectively to go along with a .300+ batting average in each season. Despite this, he still seems really undervalued. Almost all of his underlying numbers are right in line with his career stats, and nothing aside from his age suggests that he will regress (36 to start the 2012 season). If Konerko falls in your draft, don't hesitate to pick him up.

8. Eric Hosmer: Eric Hosmer broke out in a big way in 2011, hitting 19 home runs, with 11 stolen bases, and a .293 batting average in just 128 games. Hosmer could easily be a top-20 or even top-10 pick heading into 2013 drafts, but the small sample of games that we have to project from gives worry that an adjustment period may be in store. None of Hosmer's peripherals send warning signals, and if he could raise his 32% fly ball rate, he does have some home run upside. Hosmer produce Joey Votto-type fantasy lines soon, but don't pay for that in 2012.

9. Michael Morse: Michael Morse really emerged as a power hitter following his move to first base. He ended the season with a .303/.360/.550 line, including 31 home runs in his break out year. His numbers don't exactly indicate that he should regress all that much, although his .344 hit may regress as his sample of major league at bats increases. As the first base position starts to thin out, taking a chance that Morse should not be avoided.

10. Lance Berkman: Berkman showed that he can still be a very productive player when healthy. Expect a decrease in home runs, as his HR/FB rate was higher than normal and should drop some, but there is no reason why Lance cannot end up with over 25 home runs if he can stay healthy for most of the season.

11. Michael Cuddyer: Cuddyer was one of the only bright spots in an awful season for the Twins and moving to Colorado will only help. His new park increases right-handed power by 17%, and will help out his average as well. His peripheral stats are fairly stable so expect him to approach 20 home runs and 10 stolen bases, with a strong batting average. The Twins lineup couldn't have been worse in 2011, so Cuddyer's counting stats will be much better in 2012 in Colorado.

12. Adam Lind: Lind put his poor 2010 behind him with a solid season that was shortened by injuries. His HR/FB rate and K% bounced back towards his normal numbers, but went through a second straight season with poor luck with his hit rate (.277 and .265), despite having a 22% line drive rate. If Lind's luck on balls in play corrects, then he could push into the top-10 at first base.

13. Freddie Freeman: Freddie Freeman was better than expected in 2011. He was aided by a .339 hit rate, a high total somewhat explained by his 23% line drive rate. His hit rate should come down a tick, but so should his 22% strike out rate (much higher than his established minor league mark), so don't expect his batting average to drop too much. His counting numbers should also increase as the Atlanta lineup figures to be much better than it was in 2011. Freeman is good and has upside, but don't go crazy here.

14. Ryan Howard: Howard had an unlucky finish to his 2011 season as he suffered an injury that will keep him out until May at the earliest. Aside from the injury, Howard's power regression from 2010 was repeated in 2011. He is no longer a 40 home run hitter, and as the Phillies lineup declines, his counting stats could suffer as well. Even if Howard was healthy, he might only just barely crack the top eight first baseman, let someone else deal with the risk unless he comes excessively cheap.

15. Ike Davis: Ike Davis got off to a hot start in 2011 (.302/.383/.543) before an injury on a fluke play ended his season. The 36 game sample in 2011 is too small to draw major conclusion from, but if he is completely healthy in 2012 he could provide very nice value in the mid-to-late rounds of a draft. If Davis can build off of his success from last year, then .280 and 25 home runs is not unreasonable.

16. Gaby Sanchez: In his second full season, Gaby Sanchez nearly duplicated all of his 2010 numbers, playing in just a few more games. His peripherals were all in line with his 2010 numbers as well. Sanchez however did improve his BB% in 2011, and made marginal strides in his K% and in his line drive rate. If he can build upon these gains, then we could see some slight batting average upside. Sanchez should be reliable in 2012, but don't expect to hit a home run here.

17. Mark Trumbo: Mark Trumbo broke out nicely in 2011, hitting 29 home runs and stealing 9 bases. With the acquisition of Albert Pujols and with Kendrys Morales returning, the Angels will attempt to play Trumbo at third base to get him in the lineup. He will be a batting average risk, and will never score a lot of runs due to his embarrassing on base skills for a power hitter (4% walk rate), but his mid-twenties power and handful of steals will provide plenty of value provided that he can sustain regular playing time in the Angel's crowded lineup. Monitor his playing time situation prior to your draft.

18. Carlos Lee: Lee's HR/FB rate has decreased in each of the past three seasons and his isolated power has stabilized at a mark well below that of his peak years. He is well into his decline as a player, and is not aided by the triple-A lineup that surrounds him. Lee's production shouldn't decrease too much in 2012, but if you are looking for upside, look elsewhere.

19. Paul Goldschmidt: Goldschmidt held his own after being called up late in 2011. He has great raw power, as shown by his 35 home runs in 2010 in advanced A ball and 30 homers in just 103 games at double-A in 2011. Goldschmidt will be a batting average risk unless he significantly reduces his 30% strike out rate. If Goldschmidt hits well enough to stay in the Arizona lineup he could approach 25 home runs, and could sneakily approach double-digit stolen bases as well. There is upside here, but not without risk.

20. Kendrys Morales: Morales has not played in a MLB game since the middle of 2010, but at this point in drafts he warrants consideration. In 2009 Morales hit 34 home runs, scored 86 runs, drove in 108, with a .306 average and in 51 games in 2010 he was on pace to match those 2009 totals. If we could project those numbers for him in 2012, then he would probably rival Mark Teixeira for the number six spot among first baseman. Morales' health needs to be monitored over the offseason, but he could be a great value in 2012.

21. Justin Morneau: Morneau has not been healthy since the middle of 2010 and hasn't played a full season since 2008. He is still just 29 years old, so age is not yet a concern. He was likely attempting to play through pain in 2011, which contributed to his poor .227/.285/.333 line in 2011, so if healthy he should be able to do better. There is upside here, but the last year and a half of bad health should not be ignored.

22. Lucas Duda: Duda put together a very nice year in 2011, producing a .292/.370/.482 line, with 10 home runs in 347 plate appearances. His 9% walk rate and 16% strike out rate were not bad, showing that he was not overmatched at all. Duda's average should drop a bit as his high hit rate suggests, but he should still provide value in all categories except for steals.

23. James Loney: Loney will provide low teens in power, with a batting average that should help (.288 career). None of James Loney's supporting stats are trending in any noticeable direction, so don't expect much more than what he has been for the last four years.

24. Brandon Belt: Belt struggled to gain traction in 2011. Getting demoted to the minors and dealing with injuries played a role, but Belt's 27% strike out rate also contributed to his struggles, leading to a .225 batting average. Belt's K% should improve as he gets more used to major league pitching, and his .273 hit rate should rise a bit too, so we should expect a better average. Belt has the potential to hit 20 home runs with a handful of steals in 2012, but his batting average risk should keep him near the end of shallow drafts.

25. Carlos Pena: Carlos Pena has hit for a .227, .196, and a .225 batting average over the last three years. He is going to really hurt your batting average. He was more tolerable when he was a threat for .250 and 40 home runs, but as of now Pena looks like a player who should hit around 30 homers, and should yo-yo on and off the waiver wire as owners attempt to exploit his streakiness.

26. Todd Helton: After a poor 2010, Helton substantially improved his strikeout rate and isolated power leading to a solid bounce back year. His 10% HR/FB rate should drop some, but he is still a good bet for a high batting average. Don't overlook Helton in deeper leagues.

27. Adam LaRoche: LaRoche missed most of 2011 with a shoulder injury, but should be ready to play by the beginning of the 2012 season. There is risk, but 25 home runs with a .270 average is still well within reason.

28. Adam Dunn: Dunn was the most disappointing player in fantasy in 2011, hitting 11 home runs, and increasing his strikeout rate to 36%, up 9% from 2009. His pre-2011 track record shows his upside, but nothing about his 2011 season was bad luck. Even this late in a draft, Dunn is still a risk/reward.

29. Aubrey Huff: Huff's low home run total in 2011 was supported by his very low isolated power, so don't expect a return to his 26 home run year in 2010. Look for his hit rate to increase and look for a bit more power, but don't get too excited here.

30. Yonder Alonso: PETCO park decreases left-handed power by 41% so Alonso's power upside will be severely capped. His lineup support should be weak as well, so don't reach too far on Yonder.

31. Garrett Jones: Jones has stable peripherals; he'll offer near 20 home runs, with a few steals, but the batting average should hurt a bit.

32. Mike Carp: Carp has good power, but he will need to improve his 43% ground ball rate to fully display it. His .343 hit rate will be hard to sustain, and if he repeats his 26% strikeout rate, his average could become a risk. Don't forget about Carp if your league mates let him fall though.

33. Derek Lee: From a skills standpoint Derek Lee did nothing to bounce back from his 2010 struggles. He increased his K% for the second straight year, while he grew very eager at the plate as shown by his drop in his walk rate from 12% to 7% and by significantly increasing his chase rate for the second straight season from 23% in 2010 to 26% in 2011. If these trends continue, then Lee may be a batting average risk with a low power ceiling. Added to his skill decline is the fact that he has not signed with a team yet, and his hinting at retirement. His upside doesn't justify getting aggressive, so be overly cautious until he signs a contract.

34. Mitch Moreland: Moreland will get at bats at first base in Texas, but Mike Napoli should cut into that playing time when he plays first on his days off from catching. Moreland can approach 20 home runs with a decent average, but his upside is somewhat limited.

35. Justin Smoak: Smoak has been disappointing this far in his career, but he still has upside. If he takes a step forward in 2012, he could hit 20-25 home runs with a .260+ average, but there is little in his numbers to suggest that he will take that step.

36. Juan Rivera: Rivera's isolated power has decreased in two straight years, making 15 home runs a question. His strikeout rate has trended downward in two straight years; if that trend continues, he could become a batting average risk...but unless the Dodgers decide to give Jerry Sands full time at bats Rivera should see regular playing time in 2012.

37. Mat Gamel: Gamel has struggled every time he has been given a chance at the major league level, but in 2011 he cut his strikeout rate to 16% and hit 28 home runs at triple-A. A breakout is still possible, as he should get every opportunity to succeed.

38. Bryan LaHair: LaHair is slotted to begin the year as the Cubs first baseman. He is 29 years old and has spent almost his entire career in the minors, but he did hit 38 home runs last year, so he has good power. The long-term solution at first for the Cubs is Anthony Rizzo, so if LaHair struggles, Rizzo could cut into his playing time. Many feel that LaHair will struggle at the major league level, but at this point in the draft, he is worth taking a chance on.

39. Chris Davis: Davis should begin the year as Baltimore's starting first baseman, but his numbers aren't showing much promise at this point. His .100 and .136 isolated power numbers from the past two years are bad and his contact rate isn't improving either. Don't get too excited here.

40. Casey Kotchman: Isolated power is stable, so expect around 10 home runs. His .335 hit rate should drop closer to his .280 career rate, which should drop his average back into the .270 area. Cleveland does boost left-handed power a lot more than Tampa does, but with his power, it won't add too much. Low upside, don't pay for his .306 average from 2011.

41. Jesus Guzman: Not much power for a first baseman, but does run some. His hit rate is typically higher than league average and he doesn't strikeout much, so his average should be alright.

42. Brett Wallace: His high strikeout rate and very low isolated power for a first baseman gives us little reason to expect a breakout. Playing time is also a question so don't invest much in Wallace.

43. Lyle Overbay: Overbay's isolated power dropped drastically in 2011, couple that with a lack of regular playing time and Overbay begins to look very unappealing.

44. Daric Barton: Barton doesn't offer any power, or a good average, but he has a better chance to get regular playing time that the other names this low in the list.

45. Anthony Rizzo: Moving from San Diego where left-handed power is drained by 41% to Chicago where it is boosted by 19% will be an enormous help to his value once he gets to play. Rizzo should begin 2012 in the minors, but if he begins the year hot, or if Brian LaHair struggles, then Rizzo could get a call-up sooner than expected. If he takes a step forward after a terrible showing in San Diego in 2011, he has big upside for this late in a draft.

46. Brandon Allen: Allen has solid power potential and does run a bit too, but his average should be dreadful.

47. Chris Carter: Carter probably won't have a starting role to begin the season, but there are plenty of in-roads available in Oakland for Carter to earn playing time, whether it is first base, the outfield, or at DH. Should Carter earn some regular playing time, he has tremendous power potential, but strikes out a ton, and should be a serious batting average risk.

48. Matt LaPorta: With the signing of Casey Kotchman in Cleveland, LaPorta's pathway to at bats becomes trickier. He has shown no growth in any area since his debut, so you are just hoping something good happens if you draft him.

49. Eric Hinske: Has the power to reach double-digit home runs in limited playing time, but won't steal or help your batting average.

50. Jason Giambi: Giambi had an outrageous 30% HR/FB rate in 2011, so don't expect the same type of power in 2012 from Giambi. He should be able to hit 5-10 homers, but is unlikely to get much more than 200 plate appearances.

51. Chris Parmelee: He will likely start the year in the minors, but if Justin Morneau struggles with health, Parmelee could receive a call-up. Still, he doesn't have much value in leagues where at bats aren't scarce.

52. Kyle Blanks

All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).

Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup