2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Catcher

Mike Napoli is the head of a pretty deep catching class
Since we are so close to spring training, this list shouldn't change much unless an injury, trade, or an expected playing time adjustment occurs. Here is my updated list of the top fantasy baseball catchers for 2012.
1. Mike Napoli: Napoli's average will surely drop (.344 hit rate), but his improved contact rate and walk rate show that his step forward was not all luck based. His .312 isolated power was outstanding and indicates that much of his power gains were for real. The only question with Napoli is playing time, he was not injured in 2011, but only got 432 plate appearances. At his production level the Rangers would be foolish to keep him out of the lineup...pay for closer to 500 plate appearances in 2012. Napoli is our new number one catcher, but only by the slimmest of margins.
2. Brian McCann: Time missed due to injury and a poor offensive showing by the entire Atlanta Braves lineup depressed McCann's counting numbers a bit in 2011, but all of McCann's peripherals are very stable, so there are no worries here. He did have a slight fly ball spike in 2011 (47%, career 43%), if he can maintain it in 2012 he may have 25-30 home run upside.
3. Carlos Santana: Elite patience bodes well for this talented young catcher. Santana has already flashed his power potential, hitting 27 homers last season, and if he improves his luck on balls in play and cuts his K% marginally, we could be looking at fantasy's number one catcher. Still just 25 years old, we could still see some skill growth from Santana and with it the possibility to approach 35 home runs. While you shouldn't pay for his upside, he should still be taken as a top tier catcher in 2012.
4. Joe Mauer: 2011 was more or less a lost season for Mauer as he dealt with injuries and sickness nearly the whole year, which also makes skill/statistical analysis much less effective. Mauer becomes a wild card in 2012 due to his health concerns, the concerns with Minnesota's lineup as a whole, and his considerable upside. His range of reasonable outcomes is larger than almost any player in fantasy, so bid with caution in 2012.
5. Buster Posey: Like Mauer, Posey lost most of his 2011 season due to injury and there are questions to whether he will come back 100% in 2012. It appears that he could be ready by spring training, but we will need to see how his ankle responds during the spring. Upside remains elite, but too many questions to reach for him on draft day.
6. Matt Wieters: Matt Wieters quietly had a very solid season in 2011. He improved his contact rate for the second straight season and started to really flash his power potential, substantially improving his isolated power (up to .188), leading to 22 home runs. His hit rate has been low the past two years, a luck correction should lead to an average closer to .280 in 2012. Don't overlook this former top prospect in drafts next year, as he could take another step forward and emerge as a top tier fantasy catcher.
7. Jesus Montero: Montero should be guaranteed everyday at bats in Seattle, where he may not have in New York, but his numbers will definitely suffer on a per-game basis. Seattle decreases right handed home runs by 18%, which lower’s Montero’s power upside some, the park may also cost him a bit in batting average as well. He still has very high upside, but his lack of major league experience shouldn't be overlooked. Montero ranks here if he has catcher eligibility to begin 2012 in your league. He is expected to catch two or three games per week to begin the year, so it may take him a month or so to gain eligibility in all other leagues; he would fall to 8th among catchers in leagues where he begins 2012 with DH eligibility only.
8. Miguel Montero: Montero showed what he can do with a full healthy season. He also benefited by hitting in the center of an emerging Diamondbacks lineup. His fly ball rate was 4% lower than his career average, so if that bounces back up a bit, he could hit 20 home runs. Health is still not something we can dismiss, but he could easily repeat his 2011 season.
9. Alex Avila: Alex Avila was one of the more surprising breakout players in 2011. While his on base skills and power gains are promising, don't expect a .295 batting average in 2012, as Avila's .366 hit rate indicates that he was very fortunate. It is tough to see him taking another step forward, but the high teens power is certainly repeatable. He will likely be overvalued on draft day, but don't overlook him if he falls far enough.
10. Yadier Molina: Molina was fairly decent across the board (for a catcher) in 2011. His 14 homers were by far a career high from a guy who usually hits 6 or 7. His power increase may not be a fluke as he increased his isolated power from below .100 in four straight years to .160 in 2011, also hitting 32 doubles, easily a career high there too. Molina is a good target if you miss out on the top few catchers as his numbers won't look spectacular, but his across the board production has definite value.
11. Russell Martin: Martin really benefited from hitting in Yankee stadium and the counting stats that come with that lineup. Martin's power should decrease some, but he should still be a threat for double digit homers and steals. His batting average, however, is a bit of a risk, as his contact rate declined for the third straight season.
12. J.P. Arencibia: Arencibia was respectable in his rookie season, and he has the potential to hit more home runs than any other catcher in 2012, but his low 73% contact rate puts a really low cap on his batting average. Don't expect his .255 hit rate to rise a ton due to his relatively low line drive and high fly ball rate. If you can stomach the batting average, then Arencibia should provide plenty of power.
13. Wilson Ramos: Wilson Ramos showed solid skills in his first full season, hitting 15 home runs, with a .267 batting average in 435 plate appearances. Ramos may prove to be a batting average risk if he can't improve his 15% line drive rate, but with more consistent playing time and a slight step forward in skills, Ramos may finish 2012 as a top-10 catcher.
14. Ryan Doumit: Doumit signed with the Twins this off-season and figures to be the team's designated hitter, as well as fill in for Joe Mauer when needed. Doumit has struggled to stay healthy as a full time catcher, but when he is in the lineup, he is productive, so the move to the American League could really help his fantasy value. Doumit's baseline skills have remained consistent, and he should have a better chance at staying healthy this year. If he could stay healthy for the whole season, don't be shocked if he finishes the year as a top-10 catcher.
15. Kurt Suzuki: Most of Suzuki's value comes from his ability to stay healthy and accumulate at bats. His skills remained reasonably steady in 2011, and he will likely provide mid-teens home run totals, with a batting average that should increase as his low hit rates of .244 and .245 over the past two years (career .271) suggests. Very reliable, but not much upside.
16. Jonathan Lucroy: Lucroy made a strong showing in his first full season behind the plate. Don't expect any more home runs than the 12 he hit in 2011, but if he can reduce his 21% strikeout to something closer to his minor league level in the teens, then there could some batting average growth potential here.
17. Geovany Soto: Soto has solid upside this late in a draft, but all of his skills are trending in the wrong direction and he is only averaging 110.6 games played over the last three seasons. His walk rate dipped below 10% for the first time in his career, while his K% soared to over 26% in 2011. Soto also made substantial increases in swing and miss percentage, pitches swung at outside the strike zone, and infield fly ball rate. There is upside, but Soto needs to fix a lot about his game in a short period of time, don't overpay.
18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Saltalamacchia played in the most games of his career in his first season in Boston, really benefiting from the lineup that surrounded him. He will never help your batting average with a career strikeout rate of 29% (31% in 2011), but gambling that his playing time increases might be worth it for those in deep mixed or AL only leagues.
19. Miguel Olivo: The presence of Jesus Montero should cut into Olivo's value some, which is disappointing because Olivo had passed the 500 plate appearance plateau for the first time in his career in 2011, his first season in Seattle. It appears as if Olivo will still be catching the majority of games and should be able to provide around 15 home runs, and 5 steals. He will never help your batting average, but when you are this deep in a draft, you could do a lot worse.
20. Chris Iannetta: Power and a low batting average is what you will get from Chris Iannetta. He does gain plenty of value in OBP leagues, though. The move to the Angels should allow him more playing time that he typically got in Colorado, but the park adjustment will hurt his power output.
21. Devin Mesoraco: Mesoraco put together an impressive .289/.371/.484 slash line in 120 AAA games in 2011. In a full major league season Mesoraco could put up close to 20 home runs, with a respectable batting average for a catcher. The real question at this point is how much playing time he will get. He could be a top-10 catcher if he plays 125 games, but with Ryan Hanigan in the picture, Mesoraco may struggle to get half of the at bats. He is a good end game flier, but don't reach for him in the middle rounds of a deeper league.
22. A.J. Pierzynski: Peirzynski offers little outside of his solid batting average and health. He is as good of a bet as any to play 130 games, and that has value in deep mixed and AL only leagues.
23. John Buck: Buck does not typically produce much other than a respectable home run total, but there is a silver lining for Buck, and that is his dramatic improvement in his K% and BB%. If he can maintain those gains, then he would have .260+ batting average upside.
24. Nick Hundley: Nick Hundley has the capability to be useful during stretches of each season, but he has never played more than 85 games in any season. His upside is further capped by PETCO park and the Padre lineup that surrounds him. His .362 hit rate will be tough to sustain, a correction here should drop his .288 average into the .260 area. With some extra playing time and health, Hundley could give you moderate power and the potential to finish among the top-15 catchers, but don't draft him expecting more than 100 games.
25. Carlos Ruiz: Like A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz will produce a solid batting average that is fairly empty. If he is a starting catcher in an NL-only league or a two-catcher league, then he should be solid, but if it's upside that you are looking for, look elsewhere.
26. Salvador Perez: Don't expect Perez to repeat the .331 batting average that he had in his first 158 major league plate appearances, his .362 hit rate should regress, making an average in the .270s a better baseline projection for him in 2012. He will start the majority of the games in Kansas City, and could approach 10 home runs. He doesn't have huge upside, but is a good option in deep leagues.
27. Ramon Hernandez: Hernandez has not played in more than 97 games in any of the past three seasons, but he is capable of hitting close to 10 home runs, with a solid average in limited at bats. The move from Cincinnati to Colorado could actually decrease his power a bit as Cincinnati increases right-handed power by 33%, while Colorado increases it by just 17%. His average should rise in Colorado though, as the spacious outfield allows for more hits to drop in. Hernandez is the best option at catcher in Colorado, but don't pay for more than 100 games.
28. Ryan Hanigan: Hanigan should share time with rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco in 2011, and Hanigan's playing time will likely fluctuate depending on how Mesoraco plays. Hanigan will give you a solid batting average and a modest amount of power, but don't buy expecting much more than 350 plate appearances.
29. Yorvit Torrealba: While Mike Napoli should cut into Torrealba's playing time more in 2012 than he did in 2011, the Rangers will use first base and DH to get Napoli more at bats as well. Torrealba won't help too much in any one category, but he should get somewhat regular at bats and that has value this deep into the catcher pool.
30. Rod Barajas: Already a batting average drain, Barajas' strikeout rate spiked in 2011 from 16% to 21%. He can hit 15+ home runs in less than 400 plate appearances, but if his contact rate doesn't improve, he may become an enormous batting average risk.
31. Ryan Lavarnway: Larvarnway hit 32 home runs in 116 minor league games in 2011 and should get some at bats for the Red Sox in 2012. He won't hurt your average and his power output could be elite for a catcher on a per plate appearance basis. He has huge upside this late in a draft, but playing time is still a major question.
32. Josh Thole: Thole should get the majority playing time behind the plate for the Mets in 2012, but that is the extent of his value. With his .081 career isolated power, his home run total will struggle to reach five, and he has no speed to offer either. With no upside to speak of, you are really only paying for modest run and RBI totals.
33. Jason Castro: Although a return from injury by opening day isn't guaranteed, Castro looks like he may be ready for spring training. He should get the majority of the starts in Houston, but his batting average will hurt, his power should remain in the single digits and his health has to be a concern after missing the entire 2011 season, bid conservatively.
34. Wilin Rosario: Rosario can't take a walk, luckily for him he is in an organization that doesn't care much about getting base. He may not even begin the year in the majors and if he does, he will back up Ramon Hernandez. Rosario does offer plenty of power if the opportunity to play presents itself, but at this point his playing time looks limited.
35. Hank Conger: Conger hit .209 in 2011, but his unlucky hit rate (.231) should rebound, making a .250 average a good baseline projection for him. The presence of Chris Iannetta should limit Conger's at bats, but he does have upside if his playing time somehow increased.
36. A.J. Ellis: Ellis is like a poor man's Josh Thole, offering no power, no speed, and a poor batting average. He should be the Dodgers' starting catcher though, and will make his main contributions in the run and RBI categories.
37. Chris Snyder: Snyder may begin the year as the Astros catcher, but will likely back up Jason Castro once he is able to return. He can give you power when he plays, but expect his .271 average to drop into the .240 range as his .315 hit rate (career .271) is not likely to repeat.
38. Francisco Cervelli: Cervelli has a little bit of power and a little bit of speed, and his batting average is solid too. If he got regular playing time he could approach double digit home runs and steals, and could finish among the top-20 fantasy catchers, but as of now, that looks unlikely.
39. Jose Lobaton: The only other at catcher in Tampa is the 36 year old Jose Molina who has a career high in plate appearances of 297 and hasn't reached the 200 plate appearance mark in any of the past three years, so the playing time for Lobaton could be available. He has a good walk rate, which the Rays will like, and while Lobaton won't run or help your batting average, he has double-digit home run power if given regular playing time.
40. Wellington Castillo: Castillo has power, he hit 40 home runs from 2009 to 2011 in just 911 plate appearances in the minor leagues. If Soto gets injured like he typically does, Castillo could produce good power, with a batting average that could be around .250.
41. Jose Molina: Despite his .281 average (.363 hit rate) in limited playing time in 2011, you shouldn't expect much of a batting average from Molina, the same goes for his power and speed. There could be room for him to get some playing time in Tampa, however, but his value is in his run and RBI totals.
42. John Baker: Baker could get a reasonable amount of playing time behind Nick Hundley, in which case he could provide a little bit of power with an alright average. Don't go too crazy here though, Baker has only managed 104 plate appearances since 2009.
43. Brayan Pena: Pena will likely back up Salvador Perez in Kansas City, and while he will only help marginally in most categories, he shouldn't hurt your average too much, and that is rare this deep into the catcher pool.
44. Tyler Flowers: The batting average will hurt, but Flowers has 15-20 home run power if he could find regular at bats, though that isn't likely with his awful contact rate.
45. Anthony Recker: Recker has decent power, and stole 7 bags last year at triple-A, with a potential for a decent batting average if he can limit his strikeout rate as he did last year. He would have upside with playing time, but Kurt Suzuki is a very reliable first choice in Oakland.
46. Matt Treanor: With only A.J. Ellis standing in his way, there is an opportunity for Treanor to earn some extra at bats, but the reward isn't very high should he do so.
47. David Ross: Playing behind Brian McCann, Ross won't play much, but should McCann miss some time, Ross has good power and won't kill your average.
48. Lou Marson: Marson offers no power, and just a little bit of speed to go along with a painful batting average.
49. Travis D'Arnaud: D'Arnaud has huge upside but double-A is the highest level that he has played at so far in his career. A late season call-up is likely, so D'Arnaud's 2012 value is very limited, but he is the type of player who could hit 20+ home runs with a decent average right now if given the chance.
50. George Kottaras: Kottaras' isolated power is trending upward, and at a very respectable .207 in 2011, he could have 15-20 home run power if he could get the majority of the playing time in Milwaukee.
51. Kelly Shoppach: Shoppach has good power, but a sub-70% contact rate isn't the way to earn at bats. Could hit 10 home runs to go with a horrible average though.
52. John Jaso: Playing time a big question now.
53. Taylor Teagarden: Awful average, a little bit of power, but won't play much behind Matt Wieters in Baltimore.
54. Yasmani Grandal: Good prospect, but will almost surely start the year in the minors. Showed decent power in 2011, but his 23% strikeout rate indicates that he may struggle to hit for average right away if called up in 2012.
55. Jesus Flores
56. Gerald Laird: Laird might give you a home run and a steal, maybe even two, but isn't really worth much fantasy wise.
57. Brett Hayes: Low average, no speed, some power.
58. Brian Schneider
59. Mike Nickeas: No speed, power, or average.
All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).
Follow Jesse on Twitter @JesseSakstrup

Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-02-06 15:22:28
@Michael Jay:
Thanks, my bad...still like him as a nice deep, deep sleeper if Soto misses time.
Michael Jay
Posted at 2012-02-08 11:35:47
Just curious why there is no mention of Yasmani Grandal? You pretty much list every other garbage catcher, and he is suppose to be a pretty darn good prospect.

Jesse Sakstrup
Posted at 2012-02-08 15:37:07
@Michael Jay:
Don't like him for 2012, will probably spend most of the year in the minors, but you are right, I should have ranked him...he is ranked now, but pretty low.

Michael Jay
Posted at 2012-02-06 13:06:47
Wellington Castillo...not Castro.