Troy Tulowitzki Heads the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Class

Getting a shortstop early is usually a goal of most fantasy owners, but it looks especially important in 2012. There doesn't appear to be any late sleepers who might emerge, meaning if you get stuck with a mediocre shortstop, you probably won't finish the season with a much better one. Don't go out of your way to overpay, but if a good, reliable shortstop falls in your lap at a fair price, don't be shy to pull the trigger.

Here is a very early look at the 2012 shortstop class for fantasy baseball, values will change as the offseason progresses, but this is how I view the 2012 shortstop position as of today.

1. Troy Tulowitzki: Troy Tulowitzki put together his third straight elite season at shortstop. All of his underlying numbers are very stable. He has managed to improve his K% for the second straight year, if he can maintain this trend then he could have some batting average upside. Tulowitzki is a safe bet to contend for a 30/10 season in 2012. His skills say that he should be really safe, but there is still a moderate injury risk. Regardless, Tulo should be the first shortstop off the board in 2012 drafts, well worth a mid/late first round pick.

2. Hanley Ramirez: Off the board first or second in most drafts, Hanley Ramirez really hurt fantasy owners in 2011 playing only 92 games. A low 11.1% HR/FB rate contributed to a low home run total, that number should rise some, but his ground ball rate has increased substantially over the past two years at the expense of his fly ball and line drive rates. Unless he can turn this around quickly, his home run total and batting average will have a low ceiling. Hanley's .275 BABIP (career .339) should come back up above .300, so don't expect a .243 batting average again. Hanley should bounce back some, but he carries more risk than just his injuries.

3. Jose Reyes: Reyes put together a .337.384/.493 line in 2011, each the best of his career. The bad news was that for the third straight season he failed to play more than 133 games. Reyes had a better year on the base paths, stealing 39 bases in 46 attempts. His .337 batting average was aided by a lucky .353 BABIP, but his low 7% strike out rate suggests that some of his batting average gains could be for real. Reyes showed us that he still has top ten overall upside, but his inability to stay healthy will hurt him in 2012 drafts. Don't pay for much more than 130 games.

4. Starlin Castro: Castro took a big step forward after a very good rookie season. Castro hit 10 home runs and stole 22 bases. Castro kept most of his peripherals stable or positively trending during his break out 2011. Castro looks safer than most 22 year olds going into 2012. If he develops further, don't be shocked if he ends up in the high-teens in power, and high-twenties in stolen bases. Castro has a lot of upside, but he is still very young, bid confidently, but don't pay for his 2014 season in 2012.

5. Elvis Andrus: Elvis Andrus took a step forward in 2011 after spinning his tires in 2010. Andrus hit 5 home runs, and stole a career high 37 bases. Andrus cut his strike out rate by more than 3%, posting a very good 11.1% mark, meaning that his gains in batting average could be for real. Andrus is just 23, so he has some growth left in him, so don't be shocked if he steals 40+ bases and develops a little more power (5-10 home runs). Andrus will benefit from hitting at the top of a stacked Texas lineup. Andrus looks to be trending upward, he should be very good in 2012.

6. Jimmy Rollins: Jimmy Rollins bounced back in 2011, having a reasonably healthy and productive year. Rollins hit 16 home runs and stole 30 bases, his fourth 15/30 season in his career. Rollins' peripherals are fairly steady, so a sharp decline looks improbable for the Rollins, who will be 33 on opening day in 2012.

7. Asdrubal Cabrera: Asdrubal Cabrera's 2011 break out was something that really came out of nowhere. Cabrera hit 25 home runs, when his previous career high was 6. He also chipped in with 17 stolen bases. Such an enormous HR/FB spike is almost surely unsustainable, so he should regress towards the mid to upper-teens in home runs. 2011 was the first season that Cabrera did not miss significant time, so another DL stint is not unlikely. There is a lot of variance in what Cabrera might do in 2012, just don't pay for another year of his 2011 production.

8. Derek Jeter: Derek Jeter put a very nice second half of 2011 together after his fantasy value was pronounced dead by many. There is no question that Jeter is declining, but he still hits at the top of a very good Yankees line up, so his counting stats are going to be inflated. He still has the skills to produce a 10/15 season with a batting average that doesn't hurt. At 37 years old, there is always the fear that Jeter might be done, but don't overlook him due to his poor 2011 first half.

9. Alexei Ramirez: All of Alexei's 2011 numbers look very similar to his usual outputs, with the exception of his stolen base totals. Alexei attempted just 12 stolen bases and was successful on just 7 of those attempts. Alexei is 30 years old, so it is possible that his speed is waning. His poor success rate is nothing to draw positives from either. Aside from the stolen bases, Alexei looks safe to put up his usual stat line in 2012, but if his speed decreases any further he may be just a low end middle infielder in shallow mixed leagues.

10. Erick Aybar: Erick Aybar had the best season of his career in 2011, hitting 10 home runs and stealing 30 bases. His isolated power was easily the highest of his career (.142), meaning that his mini power spike could be somewhat for real. Aybar is just now entering the prime years of his career, so don't expect his numbers to tail off much. Aybar could be a good value in 2012 drafts, so don't let him slip too far.

11. Dee Gordon: Dee Gordon could stumble his way to 40 stolen bases if he gets regular playing time in 2012. He stole 24 in just 56 major leagues games in his major league debut in 2011. Gordon won't offer any power, but he has the type of speed that lead major league baseball in steals one day. Gordon showed no patience with his 3% walk rate. He needs to improve that aspect of his game if he wants to see good pitches to hit. Gordon probably won't hit over .300 in 2012 as his high .345 BABIP should regress. He has tons of upside on the base paths, as long as he can hit and field enough to stay in the lineup.

12. Jhonny Peralta: Jhonny Peralta had one of his best seasons in his first season in Detroit. Peralta repeated his 16% strike out rate from 2010, which was 4% better than his traditional rate, so he has a good chance to post a moderately helpful batting average in 2012. He also maintained the 8% fly ball spike that he had in 2011, making him a good bet to push 20 home runs again. Expect numbers close to his 2011 line.

13. J.J. Hardy: Hardy had a very good season after he got healthy in 2011, hitting 30 home runs for the first time in his career. He was fortunate with a 15.7% HR/FB rate. He should not repeat that, but he did have a career high 43% fly ball rate, if he maintains the fly ball uptick, he could again hit 30 home runs if he can stay healthy for a full season. Hardy doesn't offer any speed, and provides a neutral batting average at best, so you are really banking on his power here.

14. Stephen Drew: Stephen Drew's season was not going very well before his season ending ankle injury. Drew has substantially increased his K% in each of the last two years, a trend that he needs to reverse or he will become a batting average risk. His low 5% HR/FB rate should bounce back, and he should return to a low-teens home run total. Drew does not look like he will ever fulfill his potential, don't overdraft him expecting a huge bounce back season.

15. Emilio Bonifacio: Bonifacio had an unforeseeable break out in 2011, hitting .296 with 5 home runs and 40 stolen bases. He had just 1 home run and 40 steals is his 4 prior seasons in the majors. Bonifacio benefited from a very high .375 BABIP, that number should fall towards his .339 career mark, giving him a baseline batting average closer to .270. Bonifacio has never had regular playing time prior to 2011, if he can maintain a starting spot, he can put up numbers close to his 2011 totals, but playing time won't be guaranteed as Hanley Ramirez should come back healthy.

16. Yunel Escobar: Escobar rebounded nicely in 2011, putting an awful 2010 behind him. Almost all of his underlying stats were in line with his career numbers. Escobar should hit double-digit home runs, with little speed and a helpful average. Look further if you seek upside in a shallow league, but he should be a trustworthy option in deeper mixed leagues/AL only leagues.

17. Marco Scutaro: Marco Scutaro played just 113 games in 2011, but finished strong down the stretch ending with a .299/.358/.423 line. If Scutaro can maintain his improved strike out rate of just 8%, then he could post another helpful batting average. He doesn't offer much more than 10 home runs, and very few stolen bases, but hitting in an elite Red Sox lineup should keep his counting stats healthy. Scutaro could put one more good year together, assuming the Red Sox pick up his option for 2012 as expected.

18. Ian Desmond: Ian Desmond regressed in almost every area in 2011, the one bright spot was that he did steal 25 bases. Desmond's contact rate regressed, as did his isolated power, and his HR/FB rate. These declines were only moderate, but Desmond needs to make sure they don't become a trend. He could take a step forward and produce good value in 2012, but don't pay too much for that chance.

19. Alcides Escobar: Alcides Escobar didn't really improve any of his skills in 2011, but did return better fantasy numbers due to a more luck neutral BABIP and more stolen base attempts, resulting in 26 steals. Escobar doesn't have a ton of projection in his power or his batting average, but his 30 steal potential should keep him somewhat relevant. You won't find a better speed option at shortstop this late in 2012 drafts.

20. Cliff Pennington: Pennington couldn't match his solid 2010 season in 2011, falling 15 stolen bases behind his 2010 total of 29. Pennington is unlikely to reach the high-twenties in stolen bases, but he should be a threat for 20. Pennington will probably offer high single digit home runs with an average that won't help you. He doesn't have considerable upside, but what he provides can be useful in deeper leagues.

21. Rafael Furcal: Furcal simply cannot stay healthy, over the past four seasons he has played in 36, 150, 97, and 87 games. Furcal can still offer a modest power/speed combo, and should recover from an unlucky .240 BABIP enough to offer a neutral batting average. He could be worth riding until he gets hurt in a shallow league, but leave him alone unless you are desperate in deep mixed/NL only leagues where an adequate replacement won't be available.

22. Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez doesn't offer much at all beyond his mid-teens home run power. He has regressed significantly in his strike out rate for two consecutive seasons (21.2% in 2011), making him even more of a batting average risk than he already was. Gonzalez doesn't have much upside, he is just a desperation play.

23. Jason Bartlett: Similar to Alex Gonzalez, Jason Bartlett offers just one skill, his being speed instead of power. Bartlett won't help your batting average any and in a light hitting Padres lineup, he shouldn't accumulate a ton of counting stats. Bartlett can supply mid-twenties stolen base totals, but if you don't need speed, pass on Bartlett, there isn't much upside.

24. Yuniesky Betancourt: Betancourt can offer a pretty reliable bill of health and modest power at the shortstop position. He really won't help you in any other area. His counting stats could also suffer if the Brewers decline his option for 2012, as they should. As is the theme with most of the shortstops at the end of the 2012 drafts, Betancourt really lacks upside and is just a desperation play at best.

25. Alexi Casilla: Casilla was limited to just 97 games in 2011, a theme that seems to be repeating. Casilla did steal 15 bases in 19 attempts, which is encouraging, if he stayed healthy for close to a full season he could probably produce steals in the 20-25 range. Casilla has the upside of staying healthy and providing Cliff Pennington-like production. Don't allow yourself to be this desperate in your 2012 draft.

For those in very deep leagues looking for some potential upside, you may want to consider Zack Cozart (Cin), Sean Rodriguez (TB), or Jed Lowrie (Bos).

All rankings are based on standard mixed 5x5 rotisserie leagues (R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, K, W, SV, ERA, WHIP).

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